je.st
news
Tag: andres
Tropical Storm ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 25
2015-06-03 10:38:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUN 03 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030837 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 AM PDT WED JUN 03 2015 The coverage and intensity of convection associated with Andres continues to decrease as the cyclone moves over cooler waters. The initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt, which is a blend of the latest Dvorak T- and Current Intensity numbers from SAB and TAFB. Increasing vertical wind shear, decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, and a drier and more stable airmass should cause steady weakening during the next couple of days. Andres is expected to weaken to a tropical depression in about 36 hours, and become a post-tropical remnant low shortly thereafter. The circulation is forecast to become an open trough before the end of the forecast period. Andres is moving northwestward at about 7 kt. A deepening mid-level trough to the north of the cyclone is expected to cause Andres to turn northward and decelerate today. As the cyclone becomes a shallow system, it is forecast to turn eastward, then east-southeastward in the low-level flow. The updated track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and close to the ECMWF/GFS consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 19.2N 124.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 19.8N 125.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 20.0N 125.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 20.0N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 19.9N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z 19.4N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z 18.8N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm ANDRES (EP1/EP012015)
2015-06-03 10:37:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANDRES WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Jun 3 the center of ANDRES was located near 19.2, -124.8 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
andres
Tropical Storm ANDRES Public Advisory Number 25
2015-06-03 10:37:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUN 03 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 030837 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 AM PDT WED JUN 03 2015 ...ANDRES WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 124.8W ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 124.8 West. Andres is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north and a decrease in forward speed are expected today. A slow eastward motion is forecast to begin tonight or Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Andres is expected to become a tropical depression on Thursday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Andres are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm ANDRES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2015-06-03 10:37:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 03 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 030837 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 0900 UTC WED JUN 03 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm ANDRES Forecast Advisory Number 25
2015-06-03 10:36:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 03 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 030836 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 0900 UTC WED JUN 03 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 124.8W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 240SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 124.8W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 124.7W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.8N 125.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.0N 125.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.0N 125.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 19.9N 124.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.4N 123.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 18.8N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 124.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] next »