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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Advisory Number 14
2015-05-31 16:31:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN MAY 31 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 311431 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 1500 UTC SUN MAY 31 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 118.1W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 210SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 118.1W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 117.8W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 15.8N 119.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.4N 120.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.0N 121.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.8N 123.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.3N 126.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 19.8N 126.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 19.9N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 118.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane ANDRES Graphics
2015-05-31 11:07:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 31 May 2015 08:38:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 31 May 2015 09:03:44 GMT
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Hurricane ANDRES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2015-05-31 10:35:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN MAY 31 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 310835 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 0900 UTC SUN MAY 31 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane ANDRES (EP1/EP012015)
2015-05-31 10:35:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANDRES WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun May 31 the center of ANDRES was located near 15.4, -117.4 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane ANDRES Public Advisory Number 13
2015-05-31 10:35:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 310835 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 ...ANDRES WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 117.4W ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Andres was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 117.4 West. Andres is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected today, and this general motion should continue through Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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