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Hurricane ANDRES Graphics
2015-05-31 17:07:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 31 May 2015 14:33:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 31 May 2015 15:03:44 GMT
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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 14
2015-05-31 16:32:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 311432 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 Andres appears to be maintaining its strength for now. The cloud pattern of the hurricane consists of a central dense overcast with an eye occasionally evident in infrared satellite images. There is some indication of drier air wrapping around the circulation as seen in total precipitate water imagery. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS were generally the same as the previous cycle, so the initial wind speed estimate remains 90 kt. Steady weakening is anticipated to begin by tonight when the hurricane moves over progressively cooler water and into a much more stable air mass. Andres is expected to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period, when it is forecast to be over sea surface temperatures cooler than 24 C. The official intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one and is in line with much of the guidance. Andres has made the expected turn toward the west-northwest, and the latest initial motion estimate is 290/7. This general motion is expected to continue for the next few days while the system remains on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge. After that time, there remains significant spread in the model guidance. The GFS, GEFS ensemble mean, UKMET, and HWRF models show Andres stalling and then turning northeastward toward a mid- to upper-level trough. Conversely, the ECMWF model shows Andres moving slowly westward during the 72-120 hour time frame in the low-level flow. The official track forecast is a little north of and slower than the previous one at 72 hours and beyond. This forecast continues to lean toward the ECMWF model, especially in the longer range, which appears to have the most realistic solution of a decaying tropical cyclone moving over cool water. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 15.5N 118.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 15.8N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 16.4N 120.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 17.0N 121.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 17.8N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 19.3N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 19.8N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 19.9N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Hurricane ANDRES (EP1/EP012015)
2015-05-31 16:31:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CATEGORY 2 ANDRES TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun May 31 the center of ANDRES was located near 15.5, -118.1 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane ANDRES Public Advisory Number 14
2015-05-31 16:31:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 311431 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 ...CATEGORY 2 ANDRES TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 118.1W ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Andres was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 118.1 West. Andres is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane ANDRES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2015-05-31 16:31:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN MAY 31 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 311431 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 1500 UTC SUN MAY 31 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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