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Summary for Tropical Storm Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-06 04:30:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 5 the center of Jose was located near 12.3, -41.7 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Jose Public Advisory Number 3
2017-09-06 04:30:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 060230 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017 ...JOSE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 41.7W ABOUT 1330 MI...2140 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the future progress of Jose. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 41.7 West. Jose is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slightly faster west to west-northwest motion is expected during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Jose is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Advisory Number 3
2017-09-06 04:30:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 060230 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0300 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE FUTURE PROGRESS OF JOSE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 41.7W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 41.7W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 41.3W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 12.8N 43.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 13.5N 46.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.2N 49.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.9N 52.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.7N 57.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 50SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 19.2N 59.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 22.4N 62.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 41.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Jose Graphics
2017-09-05 22:38:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Sep 2017 20:38:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Sep 2017 21:32:15 GMT
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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-09-05 22:34:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 052033 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017 A distinct curved band of deep convection wraps more than half way around the center of Jose in its southern semicircle. Due to the improved structure, the Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB have increased to a 3.0 and 2.0, respectively. A blend of these input gives a 40 kt intensity for the initial time. Jose's current motion is assessed to be west at 11 kt, though this is uncertain due to not knowing the initial position with much confidence. Jose should move toward the west or west-northwest for the next three to four days at a slightly faster rate of forward speed as it moves south of the deep-layer Azores-Bermuda high. In about four to five days, Jose should turn toward the northwest and slow as it reaches the southwestern periphery of the high. The official track forecast is primarily based upon a blend of the ECMWF-UKMET model output and is nearly unchanged from the previous advisory. The environment in which Jose is located in appears to be quite conducive for development for the next three days as the SSTs are very warm, the vertical shear is very low, and there is abundant mid-level moisture. By days four and five, however, the vertical shear may increase in part due to the outflow from Hurricane Irma to its west. Thus the official intensity forecast shows steady intensification until day three, then decreases slightly to day five. This forecast is based upon the IVCN multi-model consensus technique, but has the usual - large - uncertainties at the long forecast ranges. No new observations have been available, so I have let it ride for the initial tropical-storm-wind radii. The official size forecast indicates a gradual increase in size, based upon the RVCN multi-model consensus approach. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 12.5N 40.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 12.9N 42.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 13.6N 45.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 14.3N 48.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 14.9N 51.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 16.5N 56.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 18.7N 59.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 22.0N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea
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