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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 8
2017-09-07 10:54:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 07 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 070854 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0900 UTC THU SEP 07 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOSE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 49.1W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 75SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 49.1W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 48.3W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.2N 51.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.8N 54.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 16.4N 57.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 17.2N 59.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 19.7N 63.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 23.0N 67.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 26.4N 69.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 49.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-07 05:02:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Sep 2017 03:02:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Sep 2017 03:31:59 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 7
2017-09-07 04:59:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 070259 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 Jose's deep convection displays a tightly curved band that wraps at least twelve-tenths around the center. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB have increased accordingly. Thus, maximum sustained winds are analyzed for Jose at 75 kt, very close to that from the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique. Jose is likely to continue developing during the next day or two while the vertical shear is low, the SSTs are around 29C, and the mid-level humidity is moist. However, beginning in two to three days, the outflow from large, strong hurricane Irma to Jose's west should start inducing more shear, inducing a steady weakening by days four and five. The official intensity forecast is based upon a blend of the LGEM, HWRF, and COAMPS models. Jose's anticipated peak intensity of 105 kt is slightly higher than the previous advisory, while days four and five show a more quickly weakening system at that time. The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest around 15 kt, as it is being advected along the south side of the deep-layer Bermuda high. This motion should continue for the next couple of days. During days three to five, Jose should bend toward the northwest as it moves around the periphery of the Bermuda high. The official track forecast is based upon the very tightly clustered guidance (and their consensus technique - TVCN), which is somewhat west of the previous advisory. If future guidance further shifts westward, then tropical storm or hurricane watches may be required for portions of the Leeward Islands on Thursday. Jose is a small hurricane with tropical-storm-force winds extending out at most 70 nm from the center, based upon NDBC Buoy 41041 and the 0006Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass. The official size foreast - based upon the RVCN consensus - suggests a gradual increase in size for the next three days. Interestingly, buoy 41041 measured a peak 1-minute wind (at 5 m anemometer height) of 61 kt around 22Z. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 14.4N 47.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 14.9N 49.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 15.5N 53.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 16.1N 55.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 16.8N 58.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 19.3N 62.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 22.4N 65.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 25.9N 68.4W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2017-09-07 04:55:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 07 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 070255 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0300 UTC THU SEP 07 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS ...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 1(15) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 1(18) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 11(24) X(24) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) X(19) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) 8(47) X(47) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 6(22) X(22) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 4(36) X(36) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 49(54) 2(56) X(56) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 2(30) X(30) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 38(43) 2(45) X(45) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 1(20) X(20) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 21(27) 2(29) X(29) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 1(14) X(14) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-07 04:54:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE CONTINUES INTENSIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 6 the center of Jose was located near 14.4, -47.5 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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