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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-07 11:01:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Sep 2017 09:01:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Sep 2017 09:29:42 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-09-07 10:55:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 070855 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery indicates some improvement of the inner core during the past several hours. The earlier identified banding eye feature in microwave imagery appears to be closing off in the west side. Based on the overall improvement of the cloud pattern and a consensus of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is raised to 80 kt. Further strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours. After that time, increasing northerly shear associated with the outflow of Hurricane Irma should inhibit further intensification and subsequently, cause the cyclone to begin weakening. The intensity forecast is based primarily on the IVCN consensus model and is close to the HWRF through 48 hours. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/16 kt, within the mid-tropospheric flow produced by the western extent of a subtropical high to the north. Jose should continue on this general west-northwestward track through the 36 hour period. Afterward, the ridge to the north is forecast to weaken in response to a mid-latitude shortwave trough approaching from the northeast. This transition in the synoptic steering pattern should influence Jose in a more northwestward motion through the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is slightly to the left of the previous advisory beyond 48 hours, and is based on a blend of the HFIP Corrected consensus model and the ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 14.8N 49.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 15.2N 51.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 15.8N 54.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 16.4N 57.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 17.2N 59.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 19.7N 63.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 23.0N 67.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 26.4N 69.1W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-07 10:55:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 7 the center of Jose was located near 14.8, -49.1 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 8
2017-09-07 10:55:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 070855 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 ...JOSE A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 49.1W ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jose. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required for portions of these islands later this morning. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 49.1 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2017-09-07 10:55:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 07 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 070855 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0900 UTC THU SEP 07 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS ...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) X(20) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 5(23) 1(24) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 7(34) X(34) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 5(26) X(26) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 48(54) 2(56) 1(57) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 2(30) X(30) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 2(18) X(18) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 37(44) 1(45) X(45) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 46(68) X(68) X(68) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 37(41) 1(42) X(42) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) X(22) X(22) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 34(56) 1(57) X(57) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) X(26) X(26) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 17(37) 1(38) X(38) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) 1(12) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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