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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Advisory Number 4
2017-09-06 10:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 060832 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0900 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE FUTURE PROGRESS OF JOSE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 42.8W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 42.8W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 42.3W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.0N 45.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 13.7N 48.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.3N 50.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 14.9N 53.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.7N 57.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 60SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 19.4N 60.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 22.7N 63.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 42.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2017-09-06 10:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 060832 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0900 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 7(24) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 4(21) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) 4(34) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 3(28) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) 1(23) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Jose Graphics
2017-09-06 04:36:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Sep 2017 02:36:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Sep 2017 02:36:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-09-06 04:31:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 060231 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017 Jose continues to gradually strengthen. Geostationary and microwave satellite images indicate that the center of the system is located on the north side of the main area of deep convection. Fragmented curved bands also exist to the north of the center. The initial intensity is nudged upward to 45 kt, based on a recent ASCAT pass. This wind speed estimate is also in agreement with a T3.0/45 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB and similar ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Satellite fixes suggest that Jose is moving westward at 12 kt. A slightly faster westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 3 days while Jose moves in the flow on the south and southwest sides of a subtropical high. After that time, a slower northwestward motion is forecast when Jose moves into a weakness in the ridge. Although the models agree on the overall scenario, there is a considerable amount of spread in the 4 to 5 day period on when and where Jose makes the northwest turn. The NHC official track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the various consensus models. The tropical storm is expected to remain in conducive environmental conditions for strengthening during the next few days, and Jose will likely become a hurricane in about 24 hours and could be near major hurricane strength by 72 hours. Thereafter, an increase in northerly shear and some drier air should end the strengthening trend and cause some weakening. The NHC intensity follows the ICON and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 12.3N 41.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 12.8N 43.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 13.5N 46.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 14.2N 49.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 14.9N 52.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 16.7N 57.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 19.2N 59.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 22.4N 62.8W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2017-09-06 04:31:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 060231 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0300 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 8(21) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 5(28) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 4(23) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 2(18) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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