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Tropical Storm Jose Public Advisory Number 5
2017-09-06 16:33:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 061433 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 ...JOSE IS CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 44.5W ABOUT 1135 MI...1825 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jose. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 44.5 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued gradual trengthening is forecast and Jose is expected to become a hurricane by later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecasters CARBIN/BANN/LAMERS
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Tropical Storm Jose Graphics
2017-09-06 10:38:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Sep 2017 08:38:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Sep 2017 08:38:02 GMT
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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-09-06 10:32:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 060832 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 Satellite images indicate that Jose's banding features are becoming better established, and the center is now located near the middle of the central dense overcast. An average of the Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin at 0600 UTC supported an intensity of 45 kt, but since the storm continues to organize, the initial wind speed is nudged upward to 50 kt at this time. Satellite fixes suggest that Jose is moving westward at 11 kt. A slightly faster westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 2 to 3 days while Jose moves in the flow on the south and southwest sides of a subtropical high. After that time, a slower northwestward motion is forecast when Jose moves into a weakness in the ridge. Although the models agree on the overall scenario, there is a considerable amount of spread in the 4 to 5 day period on when and where Jose makes the northwest turn. The NHC official track forecast is shifted slightly to the left of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest consensus aids. Additional steady strengthening seems likely during the next few days since Jose is expected to remain in favorable environmental conditions. In fact, the SHIPS model shows a 28 percent chance of Jose rapidly intensifying during the next 24 hours. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the model guidance, bringing Jose to hurricane strength by tonight and to near major hurricane strength in 72 hours. Thereafter, an increase in vertical wind shear and drier air should end the strengthening trend and cause some weakening. This intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and it is in good agreement with the HCCA model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 12.5N 42.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 13.0N 45.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 13.7N 48.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 14.3N 50.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 14.9N 53.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 16.7N 57.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 19.4N 60.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 22.7N 63.6W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-06 10:32:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 6 the center of Jose was located near 12.5, -42.8 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Jose Public Advisory Number 4
2017-09-06 10:32:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 060832 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 ...JOSE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 42.8W ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jose. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 42.8 West. Jose is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slightly faster west to west-northwest motion is expected during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Jose is expected to become a hurricane by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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