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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-08 01:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE JOSE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 8:00 PM AST Thu Sep 7 the center of Jose was located near 15.6, -53.2 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-07 22:41:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Sep 2017 20:41:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Sep 2017 20:41:28 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 10
2017-09-07 22:34:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 072034 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 Jose has continued to develop a well-defined eye on satellite imagery this afternoon, with the eye now established in the center of a ring of strong convection. 18 UTC Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB came in at T5.5, which suggests 100 knot intensity. However, given the ongoing improvements in satellite presentation and CIMSS ADT numbers which have since climbed higher, the initial intensity for this advisory is set at 105 knots. This makes Jose a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. It is the third major hurricane in the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season (Harvey, Irma). It also means we have two major hurricanes simultaneously in the Atlantic basin, which is not too common -- especially in such close proximity. The last time this happened was in 2010 when Igor and Julia were both major hurricanes on September 15-16, and then Igor and Karl were both major hurricanes briefly on September 17. In the near-term, most factors appear aligned for continued intensification. Outflow remains well-established in all quadrants, and Jose has thus far not felt negative impacts from the dry air situated just to its west and northwest. For this reason, we are taking the intensity up to 120 knots at the 24 hour forecast point. After that, a gradual decrease in intensity is shown, in line with most intensity guidance. However, the intensity forecast generally lies above most of the guidance in deference to the ongoing rapid intensification trend. Global models do show that some of the dry air to the west of Jose may wrap into the circulation in about 24-36 hours. That may be a contributing factor to the decrease in intensity, as well as some increasing shear at the base of an upper level low in the central Atlantic and perhaps the periphery of Irma's upper level outflow. The smaller size of Jose may make it a little more vulnerable to effects of dry air and shear. The initial motion remains at 285/16kt, and Jose will continue to be steered by a well established subtropical ridge. It should not reach the ridge axis until about 36-48 hours, at which point the ridge begins to erode a bit and Jose may turn a bit more toward the northwest and eventually the north. The forecast track remains very similar to the previous official forecast through 48 hours -- roughly between the operational GFS and ECMWF and close to the multi-model consensus. After that time, the steering flow becomes weaker and the forward motion should slow down. Models begin to diverge more significantly at 96hr and especially 120hr. The forecast at these time ranges lies closer to the multi-model consensus and the operational ECMWF than models that show a quicker exit to the east. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 15.5N 52.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 16.0N 54.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 16.6N 57.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 17.3N 59.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 18.4N 61.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 21.9N 65.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 25.5N 67.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 27.3N 67.2W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Lamers/Carbin
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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-07 22:33:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE BECOMES 3RD MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2017 ATLANTIC SEASON... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 7 the center of Jose was located near 15.5, -52.4 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 10
2017-09-07 22:33:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 072033 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 ...JOSE BECOMES 3RD MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2017 ATLANTIC SEASON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 52.4W ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Anguilla, Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis * Saba and St. Eustatius A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in St. Martin and Sint Maarten beginning on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 52.4 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). The hurricane is expected to continue on this heading with a slight decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 to 36 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch and tropical storm watch areas by Saturday morning. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 6 inches in the Leeward Islands from Dominica to Anguilla. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible in the northern Leeward Islands from Antigua and Barbuda to Anguilla. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are likely to affect portions of the Leeward Islands by Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Lamers/Carbin
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