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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 7
2017-09-07 04:54:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 070254 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 ...JOSE CONTINUES INTENSIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 47.5W ABOUT 925 MI...1485 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jose. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 47.5 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next two days. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 7
2017-09-07 04:54:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 07 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 070254 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0300 UTC THU SEP 07 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOSE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 47.5W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 75SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 47.5W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 46.7W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.9N 49.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.5N 53.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 16.1N 55.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.8N 58.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.3N 62.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 22.4N 65.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 25.9N 68.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 47.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-06 22:40:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Sep 2017 20:40:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Sep 2017 21:29:48 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-09-06 22:38:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 062038 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 Jose has continued to become better organized. Banding convection has become very symmetric around the center, and the upper-level outflow has become well established in all quadrants, despite the presence of Hurricane Irma to the west. An eye-like dimple has occasionally been observed in visible imagery during the afternoon. The initial intensity is now 65 kt, based on the latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB. There is no reason to believe that the recent intensification trend will end soon. In fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index gives a 48 percent chance of intensification of 30 kt (or more) in the next 24 h. My forecast is just shy of that, and is close to the intensification rate shown by the HWRF for the next 36 h. After about 48-72 h, the vertical wind shear is forecast to increase, and all of the models forecast weakening. Overall, the NHC forecast is a little above the model consensus for the first 72 h, but close to IVCN by the end of the forecast. A pair of late-arriving ASCAT passes and recent visible imagery indicate that Jose is a little farther north than previously estimated. The initial motion estimate is 285/14 kt. Due to the northward shift of the initial position, the forecast has been adjusted in that direction for the first 48 h. However, the reasoning behind the forecast has not changed, and Jose should continue on a fairly steady west-northwest track, steered primarily by the subtropical ridge. After that time, a mid-level trough should cause the ridge to retreat eastward, allowing Jose to gain more latitude. The global models, especially the ECMWF, are suggesting that this turn may occur a little later than previously expected, and have shifted westward a little bit. The new NHC forecast at 96 and 120 h is very close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and is about a degree west of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 13.9N 45.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 14.5N 48.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 15.1N 51.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 15.8N 54.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 16.4N 56.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 18.5N 60.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 21.5N 63.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 25.0N 67.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-06 22:35:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...QUICKLY STRENGTHENING JOSE BECOMES A HURRICANE... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 6 the center of Jose was located near 13.9, -45.8 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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