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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 10

2017-09-07 22:31:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 07 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 072031 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC THU SEP 07 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANGUILLA... MONTSERRAT... ST KITTS... AND NEVIS * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN ST. MARTIN AND SINT MAARTEN BEGINNING ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 52.4W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..195NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 52.4W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 51.6W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 16.0N 54.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 16.6N 57.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 17.3N 59.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 15SE 15SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.4N 61.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.9N 65.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 25.5N 67.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 27.3N 67.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 52.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LAMERS/CARBIN

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Hurricane Jose Graphics

2017-09-07 19:52:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Sep 2017 17:52:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Sep 2017 15:35:13 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)

2017-09-07 19:51:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JOSE NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM AST Thu Sep 7 the center of Jose was located near 15.2, -51.4 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 9A

2017-09-07 19:51:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 071751 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 200 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 ...JOSE NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 51.4W ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Anguilla, Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis * Saba and St. Eustatius A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 51.4 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). The hurricane is expected to continue on this heading with a slight decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Jose is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 100 miles (160 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch and tropical storm watch areas by Saturday morning. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 6 inches in the Leeward Islands from Dominica to Anguilla. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible in the northern Leeward Islands from Antigua and Barbuda to Anguilla. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are likely to affect portions of the Leeward Islands by Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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