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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 9
2017-09-07 16:50:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 071450 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 Jose is developing an eye. Convection remains very symmetric around the center, and a well-defined mid-level eye has been evident in microwave imagery throughout the morning. Outflow remains well established in all quadrants, despite the close proximity of Irma to the west, perhaps in part due to the small size of Jose. The initial intensity has been held at 80 kt, based on the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. However, the overall trend of intensification is not likely to have ended, and Jose is still forecast to become a major hurricane in about 24 h. After about 48 h, most of the intensity guidance indicates that Jose will begin to weaken, but the extent of that weakening varies quite a bit, in part due to uncertainty surrounding how much the shear from a deep-layer trough to the north and Irma may affect Jose after it passes the Leeward Islands. The official forecast is still close to the HWRF for the first 36 h, and close to the intensity consensus, IVCN, after that. The initial motion remains 285/16 kt. Almost no change has been made to the first 36 h of the forecast, and the hurricane is still expected to continue west-northwestward, along the southern extent of the subtropical ridge. Beyond that time, the global models suggest that an approaching mid-latitude trough will cause the ridge to retreat, causing Jose to turn more toward the northwest, and eventually toward the north. Based on the lastest model runs, this turn may happen a little later than previously expected. Thus, the NHC official forecast has been nudged toward the west at days 3-5, and is close to the multi-model consensus, TVCX. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 14.9N 50.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 15.4N 53.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 16.0N 56.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 16.6N 58.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 17.5N 60.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 20.3N 64.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 24.0N 67.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 27.0N 68.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-07 16:49:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY FRIDAY... ...WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 7 the center of Jose was located near 14.9, -50.6 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 9
2017-09-07 16:49:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 071449 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 ...JOSE EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY FRIDAY... ...WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 50.6W ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Watch for the islands of Antigua and Barbuda. The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the islands of Anguilla, Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis. The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the islands of Saba and St. Eustatius SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Anguilla, Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis * Saba and St. Eustatius A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of Jose. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 50.6 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). The hurricane is expected to continue on this heading with a slight decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Jose is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch and tropical storm watch areas by Saturday morning. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 6 inches in the Leeward Islands from Dominica to Anguilla. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible in the northern Leeward Islands from Antigua and Barbuda to Anguilla. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are likely to affect portions of the Leeward Islands by Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2017-09-07 16:49:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 071449 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS ...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) 1(16) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) 1(15) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 5(25) X(25) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 4(28) X(28) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 32(36) 4(40) X(40) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 2(28) X(28) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 49(64) 1(65) X(65) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 34(37) X(37) X(37) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 28(52) 1(53) X(53) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) X(23) X(23) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 48(53) 25(78) 1(79) X(79) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 31(53) X(53) X(53) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) X(32) X(32) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 44(49) 17(66) X(66) X(66) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 20(38) X(38) X(38) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) X(19) X(19) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 32(38) 8(46) X(46) X(46) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 7(19) X(19) X(19) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AVES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARTINIQUE 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBADOS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 9
2017-09-07 16:49:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 071449 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANGUILLA... MONTSERRAT... ST KITTS... AND NEVIS. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANGUILLA... MONTSERRAT... ST KITTS... AND NEVIS * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 50.6W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 50.6W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 49.8W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.4N 53.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 16.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.6N 58.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.5N 60.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.3N 64.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.0N 67.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 27.0N 68.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 50.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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