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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 6
2017-09-06 22:35:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 062035 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 ...QUICKLY STRENGTHENING JOSE BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 45.8W ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jose. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 45.8 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Jose could be near major hurricane strength on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Jose Graphics
2017-09-06 16:47:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Sep 2017 14:47:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Sep 2017 15:33:01 GMT
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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-09-06 16:39:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 061439 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 Jose is better organized this morning with an initial Dvorak intensity estimate of T3.5 from TAFB. This estimate lies between a lower SAB T3.0 and CIMSS ADT T4.0. Since the initial Dvorak fix, SSMIS microwave imagery is showing a well defined center and an enhanced outer band, a precursor to potentially rapid intensification. Therefore initial intensity has been increased to 60 knots, slightly higher than TAFB T number. Initial position estimate is a compromise of TAFB and SAB satellite fixes and a steady west-northwest motion at 15 knots should continue on the southwest periphery of extensive subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of Jose. Satellite imagery does reveal drier air north of Jose but general trends suggest favorable upper level outflow and, given considerable distance, do any not expect any adverse influences from Irma to effect Jose at this time. Both satellite and model guidance indicate Jose will continue to exist within a very favorable synoptic regime to support intensification through 72 hours. Although the models agree on the overall scenario, there is support for somewhat stronger ridging north of Jose and official track has subsequently been shifted slightly left/west of previous forecast track but remains very close to model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 13.1N 44.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 13.7N 46.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 14.3N 49.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 14.8N 52.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 15.4N 55.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 17.3N 58.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 20.2N 61.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 23.6N 64.9W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecasters Carbin/Bann/Lamers
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Tropical Storm Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2017-09-06 16:38:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 061438 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 3(29) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) 2(25) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 26(41) 2(43) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 1(21) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 18(33) 1(34) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 11(28) X(28) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) 1(18) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) 1(14) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTERS CARBIN/BANN/LAMERS
Summary for Tropical Storm Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-06 16:33:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE IS CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 6 the center of Jose was located near 13.1, -44.5 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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