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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2017-09-13 10:49:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 130849 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0900 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 32
2017-09-13 10:48:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 130848 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0900 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 66.0W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 66.0W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 66.2W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.4N 65.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 25.0N 65.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 25.3N 66.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.2N 68.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 28.0N 71.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 30.5N 70.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 33.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 66.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-13 04:50:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Sep 2017 02:50:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Sep 2017 02:50:09 GMT
Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 31
2017-09-13 04:44:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 130243 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2017 Recent microwave imagery has revealed that Jose has a fairly sturdy structure, despite 20-25 kt of northerly shear. The hurricane has a well-defined mid-level eye, and a 2241 UTC WindSat pass shows a well-defined low-level circulation that is slightly eroded on the northwest side. Since Dvorak final-T numbers are 4.0 from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity remains 65 kt, although it wouldn't be surprising if the winds were a little stronger than that. Jose could strengthen slightly during the next 12-24 hours while it remains in a regime of northerly shear, and models like the HWRF and HCCA support that thinking. After 24 hours, the shear is expected to turn out of the west-northwest and west directions, which are less likely to support intensification. Therefore, the NHC official forecast follows the trend of the intensity consensus (IVCN), showing Jose becoming a tropical storm on days 3 through 5. The ECMWF shows Jose encountering significant westerly shear by day 5, so it's possible that NHC forecast may be a little high toward the end of the forecast period. The microwave data indicated that Jose's center is a little more southeast than previously estimated, and the initial motion estimate is now 125/8 kt. Jose is being pushed southeastward on the back side of a large mid-latitude trough, but this trough will soon leave Jose behind with the subtropical ridge building in to its north. As a result, Jose is expected to make a slow clockwise loop during the next 3 days and then turn northward and northeastward once it moves around the western side of the ridge. Only the UKMET disagrees with this scenario by maintaining a persistent ridge to the north, and that model is discounted at this time. The NHC track forecast lies closest to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF for most of the forecast period, and it's only a bit southwest of the previous forecast through day 3 to account for the updated initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 26.5N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 25.9N 65.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 25.3N 65.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 25.2N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 25.6N 67.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 27.3N 70.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 30.0N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 32.5N 68.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2017-09-13 04:43:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 130243 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0300 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 13(17) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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