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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 27
2017-09-12 04:44:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 120244 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 0300 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 69.5W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 180SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 69.5W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 69.7W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.5N 69.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.1N 67.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 26.0N 66.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 5NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.4N 66.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 25.3N 68.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 27.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 29.5N 75.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 69.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 26
2017-09-11 23:07:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 11 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 112106 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Mon Sep 11 2017 Jose is a very messy looking hurricane late this afternoon. Persistent northeast shear of 20 to 25 knots has eradicated the central features of the system, leaving a fairly amorphous blob of intermittent, bursting convection. The satellite intensity estimates came in at 4.3 from ADT, 4.5 from SAB, and 5.0 from TAFB. The initial intensity was lowered to 85 kt, which is probably generous given the recent rapid degradation in the satellite presentation. The best guess at an initial motion is 350/10. Jose is expected to slowly complete an anticyclonic or clockwise loop over the next few days, as a mid-level high to the southeast of Jose builds southwest of the tropical cyclone in about 24 hours, then to the west of it in 36 to 48 hours, and northeast of it in about 3 days. By days 4 to 5 the high becomes more well established, and Jose will increase speed a bit as it emerges from the loop and treks toward the west-northwest. The guidance is tightly clustered through the next few days, but diverges a bit in days 4 and 5, with more recent runs showing Jose gaining a bit more latitude in the longer time ranges. Have nudged the forecast track a little farther north toward the GFEX, but the official track remains close to the consensus guidance. There seems to be better agreement in the models regarding the magnitude of the northerly shear, which is expected to continue to weaken the cyclone for the next few days despite warm SSTs. Jose is also expected to cross it's own wake in a few days which also will be unfavorable for strengthening. In the 4 to 5 day period, the models suggest the shear may relax enough to allow for some re-intensification of Jose, but confidence at this point is rather low. Our intensity forecast closely follows the statistical models, and is near the lower end of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 26.4N 69.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 27.2N 69.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 27.0N 67.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 26.3N 66.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 25.3N 66.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 24.4N 68.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 26.0N 71.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 28.1N 74.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster R Ballard
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-11 22:59:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 11 Sep 2017 20:59:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 11 Sep 2017 20:59:36 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2017-09-11 22:52:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 112052 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS ...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 8(21) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD
Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-11 22:52:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MEANDERS FAR NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 11 the center of Jose was located near 26.4, -69.2 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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