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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 26
2017-09-11 22:52:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 11 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 112051 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Mon Sep 11 2017 ...JOSE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MEANDERS FAR NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.4N 69.2W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 69.2 West. Jose is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected tonight, followed by a more easterly motion on Tuesday. A turn toward the southeast is expected for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster R Ballard
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 26
2017-09-11 22:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 112051 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 69.2W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 180SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 69.2W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 69.3W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 27.2N 69.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.0N 67.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 15SE 15SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 26.3N 66.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.3N 66.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 10NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 24.4N 68.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 10NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 26.0N 71.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 28.1N 74.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 69.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-11 17:05:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 11 Sep 2017 15:05:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 11 Sep 2017 15:05:43 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 25
2017-09-11 16:59:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 11 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 111458 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 11 2017 Jose is fighting 25 knots of northeasterly shear this morning according to the UW-CIMSS analysis. A new blowup of deep convection over the center overnight is helping to maintain the satellite-based current intensity estimates, with TAFB and CPHC coming in at 5.0 while SAB had 4.5 and ADT gave 4.6. Have maintained the intensity at 90 kt for this advisory. A 0826z SSMI pass and an 1118z SSMIS pass were quite helpful in determining the analysis position. The analyzed motion for 12z was about 330/12, but Jose should begin trending more northward over the next few hours, if it hasn't already. There is little change to the overall forecast philosophy, as Jose completes a slow anticyclonic loop over open waters for the next 72 hours. The rather odd forecast track is the result of a mid-level high to the east of Jose which will build south of Jose in 24 hours, then west of Jose in about 48 hours, and north of Jose between days 3 and 4. The guidance initially showed this would be a rather tight loop, but has opened it up considerably in the past few runs with the GFS and consensus models beginning to lean toward the ECMWF idea. Have adjusted the forecast track to be closer to the TVCN. By days 4 and 5, Jose should track toward the west- northwest with a bit faster forward motion as the aforementioned mid-level high strengthens to the northeast of Jose. Northerly shear should continue to affect the hurricane for the next couple of days, although there are some differences in the guidance about how strong this shear will be. Have maintained the trend of the previous intensity forecast showing gradual weakening for the next few days. Jose will likely also cross its own wake between days 3 and 4, which is a little later than previously expected with the larger loop depicted in the forecast track. This forecast maintains modest re-intensification at days 4 and 5 as some of the guidance shows the shear relaxing somewhat and the SSTs will be quite warm, although confidence is quite low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 25.5N 69.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 26.6N 69.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 27.1N 68.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 26.6N 67.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 25.7N 66.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 24.1N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 24.6N 70.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 26.5N 74.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster R Ballard
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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2017-09-11 16:53:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 111453 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS ...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 19(29) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 10(22) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GRAND TURK 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 4(20) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD
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