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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-13 04:42:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE LOOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 12 the center of Jose was located near 26.5, -66.4 with movement SE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 31
2017-09-13 04:42:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 130242 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2017 ...JOSE LOOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.5N 66.4W ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM NE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 410 MI...665 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 66.4 West. Jose is moving toward the southeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), but it is expected to make a slow clockwise loop during the next 48 hours, moving west-northwestward by late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 31
2017-09-13 04:42:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 130242 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0300 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 66.4W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 66.4W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 66.7W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.9N 65.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.3N 65.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 25.2N 66.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 25.6N 67.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.3N 70.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 30.0N 70.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 32.5N 68.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 66.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-12 22:38:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 12 Sep 2017 20:38:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 12 Sep 2017 20:38:42 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 30
2017-09-12 22:33:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 122032 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2017 Jose's convective cloud mass has evolved from a rather shapeless one into a comma-type pattern today. This increased organization suggests that the cyclone is at least holding its own in terms of intensity. The advisory intensity of 65 kt is in agreement with a Dvorak T-number from TAFB and a Current Intensity number from SAB. The dynamical guidance shows moderate to strong shear, from varying directions, over Jose throughout the forecast period. The consensus of the intensity models shows little change in strength for the next 5 days, and so does the official forecast. This is a slight change from the previous forecast which called for Jose to weaken to a tropical storm within a day or so. Given the current trend toward better organization, however, Jose could easily intensify more than shown here. A slight repositioning of the working best track was done using a center fix from an excellent Windsat image from earlier today. The initial motion estimate is a little south of east or 100/6 kt. The GFS and ECMWF global models show a mid-level ridge building west, then north, and then east-northeast of Jose over the next few days. As a result, it is expected that the system will execute an anticyclonic loop over the next 72 hours or so. Later in the forecast period, Jose is forecast to turn northward and north-northeastward while moving through a break in the ridge. For unknown reasons, the U.K. Met. Office model track continues to be well west and south of the other guidance. The official forecast track favors the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions, but does not go as far to the north-northeast as the ECMWF near the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 27.6N 67.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 27.1N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 26.3N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 26.0N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 26.2N 66.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 27.3N 69.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 30.0N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 32.5N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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