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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-12 05:31:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 12 Sep 2017 03:31:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 12 Sep 2017 03:31:34 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 27
2017-09-12 04:59:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 11 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 120259 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 11 2017 Jose remains resilient in the face of 25 kts of northeasterly shear, with a new burst of deep convection near the center giving the system a slightly better satellite presentation over the last couple of hours. Even so, the convection is pulsing, and satellite based intensity estimates support lowering the initial intensity estimate to 75 kt for this advisory. Due to some uncertainty as to the center location, the initial motion for this advisory is approximated to be 045/05 kts. Latest round of forecast guidance is consistent with the ongoing forecast philosophy, with Jose expected to complete an anticyclonic or clockwise loop over the next 3 days. A mid-level ridge to the southeast of Jose will shift west then northwest of Jose, leading to a southeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. As the ridge shifts to the north of the cyclone, Jose will briefly stall before resuming a more typical track toward the west and northwest on days 4 and 5. Even with such a complex track expected to evolve, there is good agreement amongst most of the model guidance. The latest official forecast is very close to the previous one, nudged only slightly northward toward the FSSE and other consensus members, but left of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means. UKMET and its ensemble mean continue to be on the southwest side of the guidance cone, and these outliers therefore have little impact on the official track forecast at this time. The shear that Jose is encountering is associated with an upper-level ridge centered to the northwest, and even as this feature weakens the next day or so, moderate shear is forecast persist as Jose remains over 29C water. These conflicting inputs are expected to lead to little change in intensity through day 3, with some potential for Jose to intensify toward the end of the forecast period as shear relaxes as Jose moves away from its own cold wake. The latest intensity forecast is of low confidence at this time due to the above factors and keeps Jose a hurricane through the forecast period, and closely resembles SHIPS and IVCN intensity guidance. The National Hurricane Center in Miami will resume issuance of advisories for Jose at the next forecast cycle. Thanks to the Weather Prediction Center, NWS Forecast offices, supporting staff and many participating partners for ensuring a successful continuity of operations during the past several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 27.1N 69.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 27.5N 69.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 27.1N 67.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 26.0N 66.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 25.4N 66.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 25.3N 68.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 27.0N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 29.5N 75.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Birchard/Roth/Sisko
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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2017-09-12 04:47:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 120246 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 0300 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS ...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD
Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-12 04:45:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE STALLING WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 11 the center of Jose was located near 27.1, -69.5 with movement NE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 27
2017-09-12 04:45:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 11 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 120245 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 11 2017 ...JOSE STALLING WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 69.5W ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 69.5 West. Jose is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue overnight. A turn toward the east and southeast is expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the south on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Birchard
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