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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-11 10:50:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...WEAKENING JOSE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 11 the center of Jose was located near 24.4, -68.6 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 24
2017-09-11 10:44:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 110844 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 0900 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 68.6W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 210SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 68.6W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 68.4W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.8N 69.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.8N 69.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.0N 67.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 26.3N 66.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 10NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 24.5N 65.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 10NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 25.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 26.5N 73.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 68.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-11 04:56:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 11 Sep 2017 02:56:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 11 Sep 2017 03:30:17 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 23
2017-09-11 04:49:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 110249 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2017 The eye of Hurricane Jose has been absent in satellite imagery since earlier today as increasing high-level northerly shear has weakened the cyclone. This shear is evident in the latest infrared imagery, with cold cloud tops streaming southward from the center. The initial intensity has been lowered to 100 kt with this advisory, based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates. The initial motion for this advisory is 325/12 kt, with Jose expected to move toward the north on Monday as a mid-level ridge centered to the east erodes. As Jose moves north of this ridge in 36 hours or so, a complex and dynamic steering pattern is expected to result in Jose completing a clockwise loop over the western Atlantic through the 5-day forecast period. Despite the complexity, this solution is shared by all the guidance, and the current forecast cycle features better agreement amongst the reliable models. The official track forecast closely resembles the previous one, and lies close to the TVCN and GFEX consensus models. Jose is now experiencing about 20 kt of northerly shear, associated with an upper-level ridge centered to the west. Northerly shear is still expected to increase over the next 12 to 24 hours, and remain moderately strong for a couple of days. Additional weakening is therefore expected through 72 hours despite SSTs sufficiently warm (near 29C) to support an intense cyclone. There remains a chance that Jose moves over its own cold wake on days 3 and 4 as indicated by latest HWRF guidance, which would lead to a greater amount of weakening. Toward the latter part of the forecast period, the shear may relax enough to allow for some reintensification, but the confidence in this is somewhat low. The latest intensity forecast is very close to the IVCN consensus and the SHIPS model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 23.7N 68.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 25.2N 69.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 26.5N 69.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 26.9N 68.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 26.5N 67.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 25.0N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 24.5N 69.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 25.5N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Birchard
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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2017-09-11 04:40:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 110240 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 0300 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 7( 9) 18(27) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 8(12) 11(23) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GRAND TURK 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 3( 6) 10(16) 7(23) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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