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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Advisory Number 39

2017-09-15 04:46:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 150246 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 68.0W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 68.0W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 67.6W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.1N 69.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.9N 70.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.9N 72.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 29.0N 72.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 31.4N 72.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 34.2N 71.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 37.0N 70.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 68.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Jose Graphics

2017-09-14 23:05:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Sep 2017 21:05:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Sep 2017 21:05:15 GMT

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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 38

2017-09-14 22:34:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 142034 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 The cloud pattern of Jose has become more symmetric this afternoon, with the apparent center perhaps a little more centered in the central dense overcast. Dvorak intensity estimates, however, are unchanged from six hours ago, so the initial wind speed remains 60 kt. Visible imagery suggest some drier air has become entrained into the circulation of the storm, with outflow boundaries noted in the northern semicircle. This dry air should gradually mix out while Jose remains over warm waters with light-to-moderate shear conditions. This environment favors some strengthening over the next few days, and the official forecast reflects this idea, lying between the model consensus and the global models. In the longer term, shear is forecast to increase and water temperatures should moderate. Therefore, some weakening is probable at days 4 and 5, and that is reflected in the official forecast. Jose continues to move west-northwestward, now at about 7 kt. The storm should turn northwestward by Saturday and northward by early Monday while it moves around a ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean. Model guidance, however, is not in good agreement on the strength of that ridge, leading to some significant model differences on this cycle. The leftmost global model is the UKMET, which moves Jose significantly farther westward than the other guidance in the short term, leading to a closer pass of Jose to the Outer Banks. However, most of the rest of the guidance show the northward turn starting earlier, leading to a more offshore track. Given the UKMET's recent westward bias, the new NHC forecast will put more weight on the GFS/ECMWF solutions, leading to very little change to the previous track. It should be noted there is a fair bit of spread in the global models and their ensembles, which does not give me a lot of confidence in the long-term track forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions. 2. Jose could produce other direct impacts next week along portions of the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward to New England, but it is too soon to determine what those impacts might be or where they could occur. Interests along U.S. east coast from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 25.2N 67.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 25.6N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 26.5N 70.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 27.5N 71.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 28.6N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 30.7N 72.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 33.5N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 36.5N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38

2017-09-14 22:33:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 142033 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 2100 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 9(27) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 6(20) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 6(18) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) MAYAGUANA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Tropical Storm Jose (AT2/AL122017)

2017-09-14 22:33:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM JOSE... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 14 the center of Jose was located near 25.2, -67.3 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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