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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29

2017-09-12 16:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 121447 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 1500 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)

2017-09-12 16:46:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JOSE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 12 the center of Jose was located near 27.5, -68.3 with movement E at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 29

2017-09-12 16:46:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 121446 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2017 ...JOSE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 68.3W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 68.3 West. Jose is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a turn to the southeast and south at a slow forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Jose will remain well to the east-northeast of the Bahamas through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is forecast, and Jose could become a tropical storm by tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 29

2017-09-12 16:46:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 121446 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 1500 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 68.3W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 180SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 68.3W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 68.5W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.2N 67.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 26.4N 66.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.7N 65.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 25.3N 66.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 28.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 30.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 68.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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