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Tropical Storm Jose Graphics
2017-09-15 04:53:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2017 02:53:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2017 02:53:06 GMT
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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 39
2017-09-15 04:47:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150247 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 Although the shear affecting Jose for the past several days appears to be relenting, deep convection is still limited to the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, perhaps in part due to dry air that was observed earlier today. A blend a objective and subjective current intensity estimates still supports an intensity of 60 kt. No change has been made to the intensity forecast, which remains near the multi-model consensus. Based on SHIPS diagnostics from the GFS and ECMWF models, Jose should become embedded in a more humid environment beginning in about 12 h, and this, along with warm SSTSs, should support at least gradual strengthening. The intensity guidance remains in fairly good agreement that Jose will become a hurricane again tomorrow, and will have about 48-72 hours to intensify further before the shear increases substantially. Toward the end of the forecast, gradual weakening is forecast, but Jose is still expected to be a hurricane at day 5. Much like the intensity forecast, very little change has been made to the NHC track forecast. Based on a few recent microwave images, Jose seems to be continuing to move west-northwestward at around 7 kt. Jose is still expected to track along the western periphery of a mid-level ridge, causing the cyclone to gradually turn toward the north over the next 2 days. Aside from the UKMET, which remains an outlier, the models are in fairly good agreement on the future heading of Jose, and vary mostly in speed. The new NHC forecast continues to generally split the GFS and ECMWF models, and is close to HCCA, which should account for the UKMET's recent west bias. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions. 2. Jose could produce other direct impacts next week along portions of the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward to New England, but it is too soon to determine what those impacts might be or where they could occur. Interests along U.S. east coast from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 25.5N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 26.1N 69.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 26.9N 70.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 27.9N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 29.0N 72.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 31.4N 72.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 34.2N 71.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 37.0N 70.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39
2017-09-15 04:47:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 150247 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 6(25) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 5(19) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 4(16) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAYAGUANA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-15 04:46:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... ...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 14 the center of Jose was located near 25.5, -68.0 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Jose Public Advisory Number 39
2017-09-15 04:46:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 150246 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 ...JOSE STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... ...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 68.0W ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM NE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 510 MI...815 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 68.0 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north is expected during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Jose is expected to regain hurricane status on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the Southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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