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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-11 04:39:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 10 the center of Jose was located near 23.7, -68.1 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 23
2017-09-11 04:38:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 110238 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 0300 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 68.1W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......140NE 140SE 50SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 210SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 68.1W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 67.6W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.2N 69.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.5N 69.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.9N 68.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 26.5N 67.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.0N 67.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 24.5N 69.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 25.5N 72.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 68.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-10 23:10:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Sep 2017 21:10:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Sep 2017 21:29:52 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 22
2017-09-10 23:00:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 102100 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2017 The eye of Jose has become cloud filled and indistinct in the visible satellite imagery and is no longer discernible in the infrared imagery. A 1536Z GPM pass showed the eye and inner core were degrading. Not surprisingly, current satellite intensity estimates have trended down, with ADT carrying 5.3, CPHC and SAB at 5.5, and TAFB at 6.0. The initial intensity has been lowered to 105 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 315/15. Global models show that the mid level high which has been responsible for the persistent northwest track will gradually build southward over the next 36 hours, causing the system to slow down on Monday and begin turning more toward the north. After 48 hours, the high will build to the west of Jose, forcing the hurricane into a slow anticyclonic loop between 48 and 96 hours. After 96 hours, mid-level ridging becomes reestablished north of Jose, causing the system to resume more of a west to west-northwest track through the end of the forecast period. One minor adjustment is that the models suggest this loop may occur a little slower than previously indicated, and the forecast reflects this change which is closer to the models. Jose is now experiencing about 20 kt of northerly shear, having outrun the narrow zone of weaker shear it was under previously. This shear will increase further over the next 12 to 24 hours and additional weakening appears likely through the next few days despite SSTs over 29C over the entire forecast track. During the latter part of the forecast period, the shear may relax enough to allow for some reintensification, but the confidence in this is somewhat low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 22.8N 66.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 24.4N 68.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 26.0N 69.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 26.8N 69.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 26.7N 68.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 25.4N 67.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 24.2N 68.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 25.1N 71.7W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster R Ballard
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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2017-09-10 22:57:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 102057 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 6( 9) 20(29) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) 9(15) 13(28) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND TURK 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 13(21) 11(32) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD
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