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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-10 22:57:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWEST... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 10 the center of Jose was located near 22.8, -66.9 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 22
2017-09-10 22:57:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 102057 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2017 ...JOSE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWEST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 66.9W ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM NW OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 317 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 66.9 West. Jose is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). This motion is expected to continue tonight with a slowing of forward speed on Monday. Jose will begin turning toward the northeast Monday night, followed by a more eastward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Jose will remain well to the east of the Bahamas for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is forecast, but Jose is forecast to remain a hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the northern coast of Puerto Rico, and will begin to affect Hispaniola, portions of the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to produce high surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster R Ballard
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 22
2017-09-10 22:56:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 102056 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 66.9W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 317 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......140NE 140SE 50SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 180SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 66.9W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 66.4W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.4N 68.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.0N 69.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.8N 69.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 26.7N 68.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.4N 67.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 110SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 24.2N 68.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 25.1N 71.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 66.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-10 16:57:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Sep 2017 14:57:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Sep 2017 14:57:35 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 21
2017-09-10 16:55:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 10 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 101455 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 10 2017 Jose remains an impressive hurricane this morning. A 1019z SSMI microwave pass continued to show a very well defined inner core, but a more recent 1132z pass showed some erosion of the CDO on the northwest side. The well defined eye seen earlier in the first light visible imagery is beginning to constrict and become rather ragged. Satellite intensity estimates were 6.0 (115 kt) from SAB and CPHC, and 6.5 (127 kt) at TAFB. We have maintained an intensity of 115 kt for this advisory. The initial motion continues to be rather steady at 305/15. Jose is located to the southeast of a mid-level high, which has continued to steer the tropical cyclone on this persistent northwest track. Changes are ahead, however. Global models agree that the mid-level high will first build southward, allowing Jose to turn more toward the north in about 36 hours and causing the system to slow considerably. After 48 hours, the high will build to the west of Jose, forcing the hurricane into a slow anticyclonic loop between 48 and 72 hours. After 72 hours, mid-level ridging becomes reestablished north of Jose, causing the system to resume more of a west to west-northwest track through the end of the forecast period. Our latest forecast is similar to the previous package, with some northward adjustment at the end of the period to be in better agreement with the TVCN consensus model. The UW-CIMSS wind shear analysis and satellite derived high level wind fields indicate that Jose is reaching the western end of a narrow zone of weak shear. Although Jose will remain over SSTs over 29C throughout the forecast period, increasing northerly shear should induce a weakening trend through the next 72 hours. Global models show the shear relaxing beyond 72 hours, which may be enough to allow Jose to reintensify. The IVCN shows a bit more dramatic weakening, followed by reintensification. Although this is plausible, the official forecast shows a more modest weakening and intensification than the IVCN in deference to the uncertainty. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 21.7N 65.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 23.1N 67.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 24.9N 68.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 26.1N 69.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 26.4N 68.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 25.4N 67.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 24.2N 68.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 24.8N 71.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster R Ballard
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