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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21

2017-09-10 16:53:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 101453 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) 21(32) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 11(20) 15(35) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GRAND TURK 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 5(12) 17(29) 13(42) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) 6(14) SANTO DOMINGO 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) SAN JUAN PR 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD

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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)

2017-09-10 16:51:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JOSE MAINTAINING CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY AS IT CONTINUES MOVING STEADILY NORTHWEST WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 10 the center of Jose was located near 21.7, -65.8 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 944 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 21

2017-09-10 16:51:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 10 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 101451 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 10 2017 ...JOSE MAINTAINING CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY AS IT CONTINUES MOVING STEADILY NORTHWEST WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 65.8W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM NW OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 65.8 West. Jose is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A northwest motion is expected to continue today. Jose will turn toward the north tonight and Monday, then toward the northeast Monday night, with a slower forward motion. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb (27.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and the northern coast of Puerto Rico, and will begin to affect Hispaniola, portions of the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster R Ballard

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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 21

2017-09-10 16:50:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 101450 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 65.8W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......140NE 140SE 50SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 180SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 65.8W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 65.3W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 23.1N 67.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.9N 68.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.1N 69.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.4N 68.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.4N 67.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 24.2N 68.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 24.8N 71.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 65.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD

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