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Hurricane GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 23
2016-08-28 10:53:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 280852 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0900 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 54.6W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 54.6W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 54.5W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 30.6N 55.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 31.0N 55.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.3N 55.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 31.9N 54.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.3N 51.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 35.8N 46.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 38.5N 39.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.1N 54.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane GASTON Graphics
2016-08-28 05:11:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 28 Aug 2016 02:52:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 28 Aug 2016 03:06:40 GMT
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Hurricane GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 22
2016-08-28 04:54:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 27 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 280254 TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 27 2016 Gaston has become a hurricane again with a well-defined eye on microwave images that has been occasionally showing up on conventional satellite pictures. Dvorak estimates are T4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, so the initial wind speed is increased to 75 kt. The environment near Gaston, other than some dry mid-level air, looks conducive for strengthening for the next day or so. While the environment doesn't change much in the next couple of days overall, Gaston is expected to move very slowly, which could upwell some cooler water. Thus the wind speed forecast will be leveled off after 24 hours. A more consistent weakening trend is expected beyond 72 hours when the cyclone moves over colder waters and experiences stronger shear. The latest NHC prediction is higher than the previous one, mostly owing to the initial conditions, and is close to a blend of the FSU Superensemble and the intensity consensus. Satellite fixes show that Gaston is moving slower to the northwest, at about 7 kt. The storm should continue to decelerate over the next day or so as it reaches a break in the subtropical ridge, and have a slow motion to the north or northeast from 24 to 48 hours. The next shortwave trough in the mid-latitude is forecast to reach Gaston in about 3 days, which will likely cause the hurricane to recurve to the east-northeast, albeit at a slower rate of speed than you normally see over the North Atlantic. Guidance has not changed much since the last cycle, and the official forecast is basically an update of the previous one, a bit slower than the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 29.6N 54.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 30.1N 54.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 30.7N 55.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 31.0N 55.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 31.4N 54.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 32.6N 52.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 34.6N 48.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 37.5N 42.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2016-08-28 04:52:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 280252 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0300 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
2016-08-28 04:51:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GASTON AGAIN A HURRICANE, NOW WITH 85-MPH WINDS... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Aug 27 the center of GASTON was located near 29.6, -54.2 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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