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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)
2015-08-25 10:35:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Aug 25 the center of ERIKA was located near 14.6, -49.4 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 2
2015-08-25 10:35:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 250835 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 500 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 49.4W ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla. The Meteorological Service of Curacao has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Montserrat * Antigua * Barbuda * St. Kitts and Nevis * Anguilla * Saba * St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Erika, as watches may be required for additional areas later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 49.4 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed are expected during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will approach the Leeward Islands Wednesday night and early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday night or early Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2015-08-25 10:34:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 25 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 250834 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 0900 UTC TUE AUG 25 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 19(29) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 15(33) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 10(36) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 5(29) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 2(22) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 8(33) 1(34) PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 7(38) X(38) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 34(38) 3(41) X(41) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) 1(16) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 2(37) 1(38) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 30(50) 1(51) 1(52) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) X(19) X(19) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 22(46) 1(47) X(47) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) X(17) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 18(56) X(56) 1(57) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) X(20) X(20) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 14(48) 1(49) X(49) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) X(18) X(18) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 7(34) 1(35) X(35) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) X(15) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Advisory Number 2
2015-08-25 10:34:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 25 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 250834 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 0900 UTC TUE AUG 25 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MONTSERRAT * ANTIGUA * BARBUDA * ST. KITTS AND NEVIS * ANGUILLA * SABA * ST. EUSTATIUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA...AS WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 49.4W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 60SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 49.4W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 48.6W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.2N 51.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.0N 54.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.9N 57.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.6N 61.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.3N 66.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 21.5N 71.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 24.0N 75.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 49.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-08-25 04:47:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON AUG 24 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 250246 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 PM AST MON AUG 24 2015 Satellite imagery, buoy observations, and a very recent ASCAT pass suggest that the circulation associated with the area of low pressure over the tropical Atlantic has become better defined. Deep convection also became better organized during the afternoon and has persisted in a band over the southeastern portion of the circulation this evening. The NOAA buoy reported peak south- southwesterly winds of 39 kt, and a minimum pressure of 1004 mb. Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on a 40-kt tropical storm. Erika becomes the 5th tropical storm of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season. During the next couple of days, Erika will be moving through an environment characterized by warm water, a moist air mass, and generally low vertical wind shear. These factors should allow strengthening. After 48 hours, Erika will be approaching an upper-level low/trough that is forecast to be near Hispaniola, which is expected to cause an increase in westerly wind shear. The NHC intensity forecast calls for steady intensification during the next 48 hours, and is close to the SHIPS model and intensity consensus. After that time, the intensity guidance diverges with the statistical guidance and the HWRF bringing Erika to hurricane strength. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and GFS weaken the system in about 3 days, due to the increasing shear. The NHC intensity forecast is between these scenarios and shows no change in strength after 48 hours. Due to the large spread in the intensity guidance, the intensity forecast at days 3-5 is of low confidence. Erika is moving quickly westward across the tropical Atlantic or 275/17 kt. The tropical cyclone is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge over the central Atlantic during the next few days. The forward speed of Erika should gradually decrease as the cyclone nears the western portion of the ridge. The track guidance is tightly clustered through 72 hours, with more spread after that time. The bifurcation appears to be the result of the future strength of Erika. The models that have a deeper depiction of the cyclone show more of a northwestward turn late in the period, while the models that weaken Erika indicate a more westward motion. The NHC forecast is close to the ECMWF and GFS ensemble mean, which is south of the consensus but not as far south as the GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 14.4N 47.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 14.9N 50.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 15.8N 53.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 16.5N 56.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 17.1N 59.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 18.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 20.5N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 22.0N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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