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Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 5A
2015-08-26 07:36:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 260536 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 200 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015 ...ERIKA MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 55.2W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM E OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Montserrat * Antigua and Barbuda * St. Kitts and Nevis * Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Puerto Rico * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 55.2 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a west to west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands tonight and early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by late today, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by tonight or early Thursday. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over many of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Graphics
2015-08-26 05:11:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Aug 2015 02:55:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Aug 2015 03:06:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 5
2015-08-26 04:54:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 260254 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 Both NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunter planes investigated Erika and found a disorganized storm. The central pressure rose to 1006 mb, and the strongest winds were confined to the eastern semicircle. The low-level center remains exposed to the north of the limited thunderstorm activity. Based on the current appearance on satellite imagery, and data from the plane, the initial intensity is generously kept at 35 kt. The intensity forecast continues to be highly uncertain. Erika has a large cyclonic envelope, and this is a favorable factor for the cyclone to strengthen. However, SHIPS model forecasts a hostile west-northwesterly shear over the cyclone and, in fact, it only strengthens Erika a little bit at the end of the forecast period. This coincides with the solution of the GFS and the ECMWF global models which either weaken the cyclone or show little change in strength. The NHC forecast follows the intensity consensus, and shows a modest strengthening beyond 3 days. By then, the cyclone is expected to be near the Bahamas where the environment could be a little more favorable for intensification. However, I will not be a surprised if Erika dissipates like Danny in the the northeastern Caribbean Sea where the environment is hostile. Erika is embedded within the easterly flow south of a moderate subtropical ridge which is covering the western Atlantic. This pattern will likely continue to steer Erika between the west and west-northwest at about 15 kt for the next 2 to 3 days. As the cyclone reaches the western edge of the ridge in the area of the Bahamas, the cyclone is then expected to decrease in forward speed. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and follows very closely the multi-model consensus. Tropical storm watches and warnings have been adjusted and added for some of the islands of the northeastern Caribbean by the respective Meteorological Services. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 16.0N 54.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 16.4N 56.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 17.0N 60.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 17.8N 63.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 18.8N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 21.0N 70.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 23.0N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 31/0000Z 26.0N 78.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)
2015-08-26 04:53:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANIZED ERIKA CONTINUES TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Aug 25 the center of ERIKA was located near 16.0, -54.4 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2015-08-26 04:53:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 26 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 260253 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 0300 UTC WED AUG 26 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 18(29) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 14(27) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 12(32) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 9(31) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20(30) 3(33) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 11(29) 1(30) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 4(20) X(20) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) PONCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 6(22) 1(23) X(23) PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 6(30) X(30) X(30) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 26(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 10(10) 19(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 33(34) 8(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 1( 1) 34(35) 4(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARBUDA 34 X 5( 5) 38(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X 4( 4) 34(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X 4( 4) 15(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) AVES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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