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Tropical Storm ERIKA Graphics
2015-08-25 13:55:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Aug 2015 11:55:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Aug 2015 09:06:46 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)
2015-08-25 13:53:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIKA MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST... As of 8:00 AM AST Tue Aug 25 the center of ERIKA was located near 14.8, -50.2 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 2A
2015-08-25 13:53:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 251153 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 800 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 ...ERIKA MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 50.2W ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of St. Maarten has issued a tropical storm watch for St. Maarten. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Montserrat * Antigua * Barbuda * St. Kitts and Nevis * Anguilla * Saba * St. Eustatius * St. Maarten A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Erika, as watches may be required for additional areas later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 50.2 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will approach the Leeward Islands Wednesday night and early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday night or early Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Graphics
2015-08-25 11:11:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Aug 2015 08:37:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Aug 2015 09:06:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-08-25 10:38:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 250838 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 500 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 The cloud pattern of Erika has not changed much overnight, with the convection located near the center and in the southern semicircle. The latest Dvorak estimates are T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity remains 40 kt based on the earlier buoy data. Erika will be moving over warming SSTs with light to moderate shear for the next 36 to 48 hours, and the NHC forecast shows steady intensification during this time. After that, Erika could encounter increasing westerly shear due to interaction with an upper-level low near Hispaniola and there is the potential for land interaction with the Greater Antilles. The HWRF and LGEM models show more strengthening during this time, while the GFDL and SHIPS models are less aggressive. There is also disagreement among the global models. The GFS weakens Erika to a trough by 5 days while the ECMWF has trended stronger and the UKMET continues to show a more robust cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward a bit at days 4 and 5 and is close to or a bit below the IVCN intensity consensus. Due to the large spread in the guidance, the intensity forecast at days 3-5 is of even lower confidence than usual. The initial motion estimate of 275/17 is based largely on continuity, given the difficulty locating the center with infrared imagery. The track guidance is in good agreement through 36 hours, as Erika should be steered westward to west-northwestward south of the subtropical ridge. At 48 hours and beyond, there are two distinct camps of track guidance. The UKMET, HWRF, and GFDL show a deeper system that moves northwestward, while the GFS, ECMWF, and GEFS ensemble mean show a weaker cyclone and a more west- northwestward motion. The NHC forecast has been nudged a bit to the right this cycle and remains close to the ECMWF and GEFS ensemble mean. This track is to the right of the GFS but well left of the TVCA multi-model consensus. Given the divergence in the guidance, confidence in the track forecast late in the period is low. Based on the new forecast, Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 14.6N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 15.2N 51.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 16.0N 54.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 16.9N 57.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 17.6N 61.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 19.3N 66.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 21.5N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 24.0N 75.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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