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Tropical Storm ERIKA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2015-08-25 04:42:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 25 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 250242 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 0300 UTC TUE AUG 25 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 12(28) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 7(24) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 5(22) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 15(32) X(32) PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 15(35) X(35) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 10(41) X(41) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 9(38) X(38) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 38(44) 4(48) X(48) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) X(17) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 34(42) 2(44) X(44) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) X(16) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 33(50) 1(51) 1(52) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) X(19) X(19) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 29(46) 1(47) X(47) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) X(18) X(18) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 21(37) 1(38) X(38) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17) X(17) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 11(20) 1(21) X(21) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm ERIKA Graphics
2015-08-25 04:42:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Aug 2015 02:40:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Aug 2015 02:41:47 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)
2015-08-25 04:42:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Aug 24 the center of ERIKA was located near 14.4, -47.7 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 1
2015-08-25 04:42:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON AUG 24 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 250241 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 PM AST MON AUG 24 2015 ...TROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 47.7W ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Erika. Watches may be required for a portion of the Leeward Islands early Tuesday. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 47.7 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Buoy observations and satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. Earlier this evening, NOAA buoy 41041 reported sustained winds of 45 mph with a gust to 51 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA buoy is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Advisory Number 1
2015-08-25 04:39:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 25 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 250239 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 0300 UTC TUE AUG 25 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 47.7W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 47.7W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 46.9W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 14.9N 50.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.8N 53.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.5N 56.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.1N 59.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.5N 64.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N 69.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 22.0N 73.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 47.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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