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Tropical Storm ERIKA Graphics
2015-08-25 23:11:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Aug 2015 20:50:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Aug 2015 21:06:48 GMT
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erika
Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-08-25 22:46:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 252045 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 500 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 After becoming quite disorganized in appearance earlier today, Erika has made a bit of a comeback with increased deep convection near and to the south of the center. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the intensity is near 35 kt and this is consistent with Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. Erika has limited upper-level outflow over the northern semicircle of the circulation, and microwave data suggest that the cyclone has been ingesting some dry mid-level air. As in the previous forecast, there is considerable uncertainty as to the future intensity of this tropical cyclone. The SHIPS guidance indicates increasing west-northwesterly shear over the next few days, and the GFS and ECMWF global models do not strengthen the system during the forecast period. The HWRF and GFDL models do show strengthening, however, but along a track to the right of most of the guidance. The official intensity forecast has been reduced a bit from the previous one and is close to the model consensus. A center fix from the aircraft indicates that the motion continues to be near 280/17. A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of Erika should steer the system on a west-northwestward track for the next several days. Late in the forecast period, there is significant spread in the models, with those models that depict a weaker system being farther south and west and those having a stronger cyclone farther to the north and east. The official track forecast has been adjusted a little to the left of the previous one and is in line with the latest dynamical model consensus. Some of the tropical storm watches for the islands of the northeastern Caribbean may need to be changed to warnings on the next advisory package. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 15.6N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 16.1N 55.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 16.7N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 17.4N 61.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 18.2N 64.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 20.3N 69.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 22.5N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 25.0N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)
2015-08-25 22:45:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIKA EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TOMORROW NIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Aug 25 the center of ERIKA was located near 15.6, -52.8 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 4
2015-08-25 22:45:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 252045 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 500 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 ...ERIKA EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TOMORROW NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 52.8W ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM E OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Montserrat * Antigua and Barbuda * St. Kitts and Nevis * Anguilla * Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten * Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 52.8 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west- northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night and early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday night or early Thursday. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over many of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Advisory Number 4
2015-08-25 22:45:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 25 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 252045 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 2100 UTC TUE AUG 25 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MONTSERRAT * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA * ST. KITTS AND NEVIS * ANGUILLA * SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN * GUADELOUPE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 52.8W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 30SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 52.8W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 51.9W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.1N 55.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.7N 58.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.4N 61.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.2N 64.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.3N 69.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 22.5N 74.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 25.0N 78.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 52.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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