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Tropical Storm ERIKA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2015-08-25 22:45:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 25 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 252045 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 2100 UTC TUE AUG 25 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 18(26) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 14(29) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 12(31) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) 6(32) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 16(31) 3(34) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 9(25) X(25) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) 1(18) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 20(31) 1(32) X(32) PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 20(39) X(39) X(39) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 12(45) X(45) 1(46) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 8(40) X(40) X(40) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 16(16) 34(50) 3(53) X(53) X(53) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 22(22) 24(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 40(41) 13(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 37(38) 11(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GUADELOUPE 34 X 1( 1) 22(23) 6(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AVES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm ERIKA Graphics

2015-08-25 19:35:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Aug 2015 17:35:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Aug 2015 15:06:48 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)

2015-08-25 19:30:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ERIKA CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 2:00 PM AST Tue Aug 25 the center of ERIKA was located near 15.3, -51.8 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 3A

2015-08-25 19:30:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 251730 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 200 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 ...ERIKA CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 51.8W ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Montserrat * Antigua and Barbuda * St. Kitts and Nevis * Anguilla * Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten * Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 51.8 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west- northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night and early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Erika later this afternoon. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday night or early Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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