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Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 5
2015-08-26 04:53:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 260253 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 ...POORLY ORGANIZED ERIKA CONTINUES TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 54.4W ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM E OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and the U.S Virgin Islands. The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Anguilla and a Tropical Storm Watch for the British Virgin Islands. The Meteorological Service of Curacao has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius. The Meteorological Service of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Maarten. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anguilla * Saba, St. Eustatius * St. Maarten A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Montserrat * Antigua and Barbuda * St. Kitts and Nevis * Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Puerto Rico and the U.S Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 54.4 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a west to west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night and early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by late Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday night or early Thursday. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over many of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Advisory Number 5
2015-08-26 04:53:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 26 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 260253 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 0300 UTC WED AUG 26 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANGUILLA AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ST. MAARTEN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANGUILLA * SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MONTSERRAT * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA * ST. KITTS AND NEVIS * GUADELOUPE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY * PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 54.4W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 90SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 54.4W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 53.6W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.4N 56.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 0SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.0N 60.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 0SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.8N 63.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 0SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.8N 66.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 0SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.0N 70.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 0SW 25NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 23.0N 75.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 26.0N 78.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 54.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Graphics
2015-08-26 01:37:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Aug 2015 23:37:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Aug 2015 21:06:48 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)
2015-08-26 01:36:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE AND NOAA PLANES FIND ERIKA POORLY ORGANIZED... As of 8:00 PM AST Tue Aug 25 the center of ERIKA was located near 15.8, -53.6 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 4A
2015-08-26 01:36:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 252336 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 800 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 ...AIR FORCE AND NOAA PLANES FIND ERIKA POORLY ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 53.6W ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM E OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Montserrat * Antigua and Barbuda * St. Kitts and Nevis * Anguilla * Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten * Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 53.6 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west- northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night and early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the east of the center. The minimum central pressure reported by NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday night or early Thursday. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over many of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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