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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-06-25 22:36:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 252036 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019 Convection associated with the area of low pressure located south of the coast of Mexico has become sufficiently well organized today, and visible satellite imagery suggest that the system has acquired a well-defined center. Based on these observations, advisories are being initiated on the first tropical depression of the 2019 eastern Pacific hurricane season. The latest Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are 2.0 and 1.5 respectively, and the initial wind speed has been set at 25 kt. The depression is forecast to remain over warm sea surface temperatures and within a low wind shear environment during the next couple of days. Although there is some dry mid-level air to the west of the cyclone, modest strengthening is indicated by most of the intensity guidance, and the NHC foreast follows suit. After 48 hours, increasing south-southwesterly shear and cooler waters are expected to cause weakening, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. The somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate is 290/13 kt. A mid-level ridge extending from northwestern Mexico into the eastern Pacific should steer the cyclone west-northwestward during the next few days. There is spread in the guidance as to how much latitude the system will gain over the next few days. The ECMWF which does not deepen the system much, if at all, shows a more southern track than the remainder of the guidance. The NHC forecast assumes that the system will strengthen some and shows a more climatological west-northwestward track close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 15.2N 105.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 15.8N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 16.2N 110.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 16.7N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 17.4N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 18.5N 119.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 18.8N 122.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-06-25 22:35:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 25 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 252035 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019 2100 UTC TUE JUN 25 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 X 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression One-E (EP1/EP012019)
2019-06-25 22:35:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2019 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON FORMS... As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 the center of One-E was located near 15.2, -105.7 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression One-E Public Advisory Number 1
2019-06-25 22:35:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 252035 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019 ...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2019 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON FORMS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 105.7W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 600 MI...960 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 105.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and a west-northwestward to westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Wednesday or Wednesday night. The system is forecast to begin weakening on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2019-06-25 22:34:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 25 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 252034 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019 2100 UTC TUE JUN 25 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 105.7W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 105.7W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 105.0W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.8N 107.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.2N 110.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.7N 113.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.4N 115.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.5N 119.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 18.8N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 105.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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