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Tropical Depression Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 15
2019-06-29 10:34:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jun 29 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290834 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Alvin Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 200 AM PDT Sat Jun 29 2019 Alvin has become a swirl of low and mid-level clouds as strong shear and cooler waters have caused a rapid demise of the tropical cyclone. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt, and is based on the latest Dvorak T-numbers. The hostile environmental conditions should continue to cause the cyclone to weaken today, and the system should degenerate into a remnant low later this morning. As expected, Alvin has slowed down and turned west-northwestward, with an initial motion estimate of 290/7 kt. Now that Alvin has become a vertically shallow system, a slow westward to west- northwestward motion within the low-level trade wind flow is forecast until dissipation occurs. The NHC forecast track lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope and is in best agreement with the latest ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 20.3N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 20.6N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Alvin (EP1/EP012019)
2019-06-29 10:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ALVIN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Jun 29 the center of Alvin was located near 20.3, -119.9 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Alvin Public Advisory Number 15
2019-06-29 10:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jun 29 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 290833 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Alvin Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 200 AM PDT Sat Jun 29 2019 ...ALVIN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 119.9W ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Alvin was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 119.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west-northwestward to westward motion is expected today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Alvin is expected to decay to a remnant low later this morning and then dissipate tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Alvin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2019-06-29 10:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 29 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 290833 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019 0900 UTC SAT JUN 29 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Alvin Forecast Advisory Number 15
2019-06-29 10:33:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 29 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 290833 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019 0900 UTC SAT JUN 29 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 119.9W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 119.9W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 119.6W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.6N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 119.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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