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Tropical Storm Alvin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2019-06-28 22:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 28 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 282032 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019 2100 UTC FRI JUN 28 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Advisory Number 13
2019-06-28 22:31:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 28 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 282031 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019 2100 UTC FRI JUN 28 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 118.6W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 118.6W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 118.1W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.7N 120.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.5N 121.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.0N 123.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 118.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Alvin Graphics
2019-06-28 16:36:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Jun 2019 14:36:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Jun 2019 15:24:14 GMT
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Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 12
2019-06-28 16:35:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jun 28 2019 456 WTPZ41 KNHC 281435 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 800 AM PDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Alvin continues to lose organization as a steady weakening trend has commenced. The satellite presentation has become more ragged and the center is now very close to the southwestern edge of the deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, with a blended average indicating a 55 kt initial intensity for this advisory. Alvin is already over SSTs of 24 C and will move over even cooler waters over the next 36 hours. In addition, the latest guidance depicts southwesterly shear of 15 to 20 kt impacting the circulation, and this is forecast to increase to over 30 kt in 24 hours. These factors, along with Alvin moving into an increasingly stable atmospheric environment, will result in continued steady weakening into this weekend. By Saturday night, Alvin is expected to become devoid of deep convection, and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate by Sunday. Alvin accelerated slightly overnight, with an initial motion of 305/14 kt. This faster motion is expected to be only temporary and the official track forecast is near the clustering of the consensus aids. Alvin will be steered around the southwestern periphery of mid-level ridging to its north through today. Thereafter, a much weaker cyclone will become steered by the lower level environmental flow, which will result in a turn to the west-northwest and decrease in forward speed tonight into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 19.0N 117.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 20.1N 119.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 21.0N 121.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 21.6N 122.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Alvin (EP1/EP012019)
2019-06-28 16:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ALVIN STEADILY WEAKENING... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Jun 28 the center of Alvin was located near 19.0, -117.7 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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