je.st
news
Tag: alvin
Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-06-27 22:32:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 272032 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019 A pair of timely ASCAT passes just before 1800 UTC indicate that Alvin has strengthened a little more. Multiple 45-50 kt wind vectors were present in the northwest quadrant of the cyclone in both passes. The intensity of the tropical storm has been increased to 55 kt since the ASCAT instrument is likely undersampling the strongest winds of this small tropical storm. Most of the intensity models indicate that Alvin has reached its peak intensity, however, the HWRF and GFS suggest that Alvin could still squeak out a little more intensification during the next 12 h or so. While I can't rule out that Alvin could get a little stronger tonight, its window for strengthening is likely closing soon. The cyclone's infrared cloud signature has already taken on a shear pattern, and GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS diagnostics suggest that the shear should steadily increase during the next 48 h. Furthermore, the tropical storm is quickly approaching cooler waters. Nearly all of the models show Alvin degenerating into a remnant low within about 48 h and dissipating soon thereafter, and the NHC forecast reflects this. The initial motion of Alvin is still 300/12 kt. No changes of significance were made to the NHC track forecast which continues to closely follow HCCA and TVCN. Alvin should continue on this general heading for another 24 hours or so, before gradually turning westward as it degenerates into a remnant low over the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 16.6N 114.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 17.7N 115.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 19.3N 118.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 20.3N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 20.9N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm Alvin (EP1/EP012019)
2019-06-27 22:31:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ALVIN A LITTLE STRONGER BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 the center of Alvin was located near 16.6, -114.2 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
alvin
Tropical Storm Alvin Public Advisory Number 9
2019-06-27 22:31:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 272031 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019 ...ALVIN A LITTLE STRONGER BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 114.2W ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 114.2 West. Alvin is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A turn toward the west with a decrease in forward speed is expected by late Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely tonight, but Alvin is expected to begin weakening on Friday. The tropical storm is forecast to become a remnant low on Saturday and should dissipate soon thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Advisory Number 9
2019-06-27 22:31:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 27 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 272031 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019 2100 UTC THU JUN 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 114.2W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 114.2W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 113.6W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.7N 115.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.3N 118.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.3N 119.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.9N 121.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 114.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Alvin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2019-06-27 22:31:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 27 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 272031 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019 2100 UTC THU JUN 27 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 32(34) 5(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] next »