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Tropical Storm Alvin Public Advisory Number 12
2019-06-28 16:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jun 28 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 281434 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 800 AM PDT Fri Jun 28 2019 ...ALVIN STEADILY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 117.7W ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 117.7 West. Alvin is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and a gradual turn toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast, with Alvin expected to become a remnant low by Saturday night and dissipate by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Beven
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Tropical Storm Alvin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2019-06-28 16:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 28 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 281434 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019 1500 UTC FRI JUN 28 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 24 25(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) 20N 120W 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/BEVEN
Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Advisory Number 12
2019-06-28 16:33:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 28 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 281433 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019 1500 UTC FRI JUN 28 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 117.7W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 117.7W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 117.2W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.1N 119.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.0N 121.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.6N 122.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 117.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Alvin Graphics
2019-06-28 10:38:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Jun 2019 08:38:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Jun 2019 09:24:12 GMT
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Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 11
2019-06-28 10:36:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Jun 28 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 280836 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 200 AM PDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Alvin's satellite presentation has begun to degrade overnight with the overall cloud pattern becoming elongated from southwest to northeast. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that the center was located within the southwestern portion of the main convective mass, suggesting that southwesterly shear has caused the system to become less symmetric. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB have started to decrease, and a blend of the various satellite intensity estimates yields an initial wind speed of 60 kt for this advisory. Increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters ahead of the storm are expected to cause rapid weakening during the next 24 to 36 hours. Since Alvin is a small cyclone, it is likely to suffer from the affects of the hostile environment more quickly. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for a faster rate of weakening than indicated by the statistical SHIPS/LGEM models and is closest to the latest Florida State Superensemble. The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday and it should dissipate shortly thereafter. The initial motion estimate is 305/13 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains the same as the previous advisory. Alvin should continue to move around the western periphery of a subtropical ridge during the next couple of days, with the weakening cyclone turning more westward and decelerating. The latest NHC track forecast is near the various consensus aids and is essentially an update of the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 18.0N 116.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 19.2N 118.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 20.3N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 20.9N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0600Z 21.3N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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