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Tropical Storm Alvin Graphics
2019-06-27 16:51:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Jun 2019 14:51:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Jun 2019 15:23:57 GMT
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alvin
Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-06-27 16:51:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 271450 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019 Recent microwave imagery indicates that Alvin's convective structure has improved over the past several hours, and a 1057 UTC SSMI overpass showed a closed ring of convection around the mid-level center of the small tropical storm. However, the infrared presentation of Alvin has not changed significantly since the last advisory and satellite intensity estimates are also unchanged. The initial intensity is therefore held at 50 kt, in deference to ASCAT data from late last night. The dynamical models (primarily the HWRF, HMON, and GFS) continue to indicate that Alvin could strengthen during the next 12 to 24 hours before it reaches much colder waters to the north. Once the tropical storm reaches those waters in a day or so, it should quickly weaken, likely becoming a remnant low around or just after 48 h. The NHC intensity forecast has not been changed substantially since the previous advisory and remains close to the intensity consensus aids. It is worth noting that the small size of Alvin could make it susceptible to short-term swings of intensity, up or down, and once weakening begins it could occur even faster than currently indicated. The official track forecast has been nudged slightly northward, but is otherwise unchanged. The initial motion estimate is 300/12 kt, and Alvin is expected to continue to move west-northwestward or westward at a similar forward speed for the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, the cyclone should turn toward the west as it weakens and becomes steered by shallow easterly flow to the north before it dissipates entirely. The NHC forecast closely follows the HCCA and TVCN aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 15.8N 113.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 16.9N 114.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 18.5N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 19.7N 119.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 20.5N 120.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Alvin (EP1/EP012019)
2019-06-27 16:50:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ALVIN HOLDING STEADY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 the center of Alvin was located near 15.8, -113.1 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Alvin Public Advisory Number 8
2019-06-27 16:50:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 271450 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019 ...ALVIN HOLDING STEADY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 113.1W ABOUT 535 MI...855 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 113.1 West. Alvin is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A turn toward the west is expected by late Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. Weakening is expected to begin on Friday and Alvin is forecast to become a remnant low on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Alvin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2019-06-27 16:50:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 27 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 271450 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019 1500 UTC THU JUN 27 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 17(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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