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Tropical Storm Alvin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2019-06-28 10:36:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 28 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 280836 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019 0900 UTC FRI JUN 28 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 X 42(42) 4(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) 20N 120W 50 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Tropical Storm Alvin (EP1/EP012019)

2019-06-28 10:36:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ALVIN BEGINNING TO WEAKEN... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Jun 28 the center of Alvin was located near 18.0, -116.3 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm Alvin Public Advisory Number 11

2019-06-28 10:36:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Jun 28 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 280836 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 200 AM PDT Fri Jun 28 2019 ...ALVIN BEGINNING TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 116.3W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 116.3 West. Alvin is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected over the next day or two, and Alvin is forecast to become a remnant low on Saturday and should dissipate soon thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Advisory Number 11

2019-06-28 10:36:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 28 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 280836 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019 0900 UTC FRI JUN 28 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 116.3W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 116.3W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 115.8W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.2N 118.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.3N 119.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.9N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.3N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 116.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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