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Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Advisory Number 8
2019-06-27 16:50:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 27 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 271449 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019 1500 UTC THU JUN 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 113.1W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 113.1W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 112.6W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.9N 114.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.5N 117.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.7N 119.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.5N 120.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 113.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Alvin Graphics
2019-06-27 14:29:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Jun 2019 12:29:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Jun 2019 12:25:59 GMT
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alvin
Tropical Storm Alvin Graphics
2019-06-27 14:25:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Jun 2019 12:25:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Jun 2019 12:25:59 GMT
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alvin
Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-06-27 10:47:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 270847 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 300 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019 Alvin's satellite presentation is much improved since this time yesterday, consisting of a small but distinct CDO with extremely cold overshooting cloud tops of about -90C near the well-defined center. Outflow is fairly symmetrical due to the low vertical wind shear conditions affecting the compact cyclone. A 0435Z ASCAT-A pass revealed that tropical-storm-force winds only extended 15-20 nmi away from the center in the northern semicircle along with one peak wind vector of 46 kt located in the northwestern quadrant near the overshooting cloud tops. Given Alvin's small size and likely undersampling by the scatterometer instrument, the intensity is raised to 50 kt, which is consistent with ADT and SATCON estimates. The initial position and motion vector of 300/11 kt are based on ASCAT-A/-C scatterometer wind data and passive microwave fixes. Although the new track has been shifted north of the previous advisory track, there otherwise are no significant changes to the previous forecast track reasoning. Alvin is expected to move steadily west-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends westward from northwestern Mexico. The latest track guidance has again shifted northward and the new NHC track has likewise been shifted northward, but not quite as far the consensus models out of the respect for the lower latitude ECMWF and FSSE models. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours while Alvin remains over SSTs greater than 26 deg C and within a low vertical wind shear regime. By 36 hours, however, the combination of cooling SSTs and a more stable airmass is forecast to induce steady to rapid weakening. Alvin is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by late Saturday, and dissipate by Monday. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to a blend of the consensus models IVCN. HCCA, and FSSE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 15.1N 111.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 15.9N 113.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 17.3N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 18.7N 118.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 19.6N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 20.7N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Alvin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2019-06-27 10:40:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 27 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 270840 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019 0900 UTC THU JUN 27 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 22(26) 6(32) X(32) X(32) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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