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Tropical Storm Alvin Graphics
2019-06-29 04:33:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Jun 2019 02:33:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Jun 2019 03:23:56 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Alvin (EP1/EP012019)
2019-06-29 04:31:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ALVIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Jun 28 the center of Alvin was located near 20.1, -119.3 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 13
2019-06-28 22:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Jun 28 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 282032 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 200 PM PDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Alvin is rapidly weakening due to motion over sea surface temperatures of 23-24C and increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear, with the low-level center now partly exposed at the southern edge of the weakening convective mass. The initial intensity is reduced to 45 kt based on a blend of recent ASCAT data and subjective satellite intensity estimates. Continued rapid weakening is expected, and Alvin is forecast to become a remnant low in about 24 h and dissipate completely after 36 h. The initial motion is 310/13. The cyclone should continue generally northwestward for the next 12-18 h due to flow around a mid-level ridge to the north. After that time, the weakening and increasingly shallow system should turn west-northwestward as the low-level winds become the predominant steering mechanism. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 19.7N 118.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 20.7N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 21.5N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/0600Z 22.0N 123.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Alvin (EP1/EP012019)
2019-06-28 22:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ALVIN NOW RAPIDLY WEAKENING... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Jun 28 the center of Alvin was located near 19.7, -118.6 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Alvin Public Advisory Number 13
2019-06-28 22:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Jun 28 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 282032 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 200 PM PDT Fri Jun 28 2019 ...ALVIN NOW RAPIDLY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 118.6W ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 118.6 West. Alvin is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Alvin is expected to decay to a remnant low by late Saturday or Saturday night and then dissipate by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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