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Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-06-27 04:32:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 270232 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 900 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019 Alvin's presentation on satellite images consists of a well-defined CDO with very cold cloud tops near/over the center, with very limited banding features. Upper-level outflow is fairly distinct over the western semicircle of the system. The current intensity estimate is boosted slightly, to 45 kt, based on Dvorak CI numbers from both TAFB and SAB. Alvin is likely to strengthen some more during the next 12 to 24 hours since it should be moving over sufficiently warm waters, within low vertical shear, and in a modestly moist air mass for the next day or so. Beyond 24 hours, cooling SSTs and gradually increasing shear should cause a weakening trend to commence. All of the models call for rapid weakening in 2 to 3 days, and the cyclone should degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday. The official intensity forecast is a little below the latest model consensus. Recent center fixes indicate that there is no longer a southward component of motion, and the initial motion estimate is now westward or 270/11 kt. There have been no significant changes to the general track prediction philosophy. Over the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to move along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge extending westward from northwestern Mexico. Most of the track guidance has shifted a little northward on this cycle, and the new official forecast is slightly north of the previous one, but a little south of the simple and corrected dynamical consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 14.4N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 15.0N 112.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 16.0N 115.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 17.0N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 18.0N 119.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 19.3N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Alvin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2019-06-27 04:31:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 27 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 270231 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019 0300 UTC THU JUN 27 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 115W 34 X 26(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 115W 50 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 115W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Alvin (EP1/EP012019)
2019-06-27 04:31:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ALVIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN... As of 9:00 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 the center of Alvin was located near 14.4, -111.3 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Alvin Public Advisory Number 6
2019-06-27 04:31:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 270231 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 900 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019 ...ALVIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 111.3W ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 111.3 West. Alvin is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected on Thursday, and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Weakening is forecast to begin on Friday, and Alvin is expected to become a remnant low on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Advisory Number 6
2019-06-27 04:30:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 27 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 270230 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019 0300 UTC THU JUN 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 111.3W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 111.3W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 110.7W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.0N 112.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.0N 115.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.0N 117.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.0N 119.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.3N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 111.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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