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Tropical Storm BERTHA Graphics
2014-08-03 17:13:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Aug 2014 14:38:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Aug 2014 15:07:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-08-03 16:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 031435 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014 Visible satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern of Bertha is becoming a little better organized, with some banding features apparent over the eastern portion of the system. Also, reports from a hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the low-level circulation is becoming better defined. The current intensity estimate is held at 40 kt, in agreement with SFMR-observed surface winds from the aircraft well to the northeast of the estimated center. The initial motion estimate continues to be northwestward, or 320/18 kt. The track forecast and reasoning are mostly unchanged from the previous advisory. Over the next couple of days, Bertha should move around the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone at a slightly slower forward speed. Thereafter, the tropical cyclone is likely to turn northeastward and east-northeastward while accelerating as it moves into the mid-latitude westerlies. The current official forecast is fairly close to the latest multi-model consensus. Cirrus motions and animation of water vapor imagery show that the shear over Bertha has begun to relax a little, and this, along with an increase in mid-level moisture, should allow for some strengthening. In the latter part of the forecast period, west-southwesterly shear increases significantly, but by that time it is anticipated that Bertha will have become an extratropical storm over the North Atlantic. The official wind speed forecast is the same as in the previous advisory, and quite similar to the latest intensity model consensus, ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 22.2N 72.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 24.3N 73.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 27.4N 74.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 30.7N 73.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 33.7N 71.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 39.5N 64.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 44.0N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/1200Z 47.5N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2014-08-03 16:34:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 03 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 031434 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1500 UTC SUN AUG 03 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 15(31) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 34(37) X(37) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 47 3(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) SAN SALVADOR 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 74 X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) GRAND TURK 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm BERTHA Public Advisory Number 11
2014-08-03 16:34:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 031434 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014 ...BERTHA MOVING NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 72.6W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF SAN SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY... AND PASS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS WELL THE TURKS AND CAICOS THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Storm BERTHA (AT3/AL032014)
2014-08-03 16:34:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERTHA MOVING NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 the center of BERTHA was located near 22.2, -72.6 with movement NW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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