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Summary for Tropical Storm BERTHA (AT3/AL032014)
2014-08-03 01:47:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERTHA MOVING OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... As of 8:00 PM AST Sat Aug 2 the center of BERTHA was located near 18.9, -69.1 with movement WNW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Graphics
2014-08-02 23:14:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2014 21:00:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2014 21:07:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2014-08-02 22:51:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 022050 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 2100 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 3( 3) 30(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYAGUANA 34 X 33(33) 8(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) MAYAGUANA 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAYAGUANA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRAND TURK 34 4 54(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) GRAND TURK 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PUERTO PLATA 34 21 4(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) SANTO DOMINGO 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONCE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2014-08-02 22:51:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT AUG 02 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 022050 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 500 PM AST SAT AUG 02 2014 Bertha has maintained some organized convection over the eastern semicircle during the past several hours. However, the system barely qualifies as a tropical cyclone, as a combination of NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and surface data cannot definitively close off the circulation. The initial intensity is reduced to 40 kt based on a combination of surface observations and data from the San Juan WSR-88D Doppler radar. It should be noted that Bertha continues to suffer from dry air entrainment and northwesterly vertical shear, and advisories could be discontinued tonight or Sunday if the system becomes any less organized. The initial motion is now 300/19. Bertha is approaching the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge and should turn northwestward during the next several hours. A turn toward the north should occur in about 48 hours as Bertha moves between the ridge and a deep-layer trough over the southeastern United States. After that, the cyclone should turn northeastward as it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, and the new forecast track is again generally similar to the previous track. There are now three possible scenarios for the intensity of Bertha. The scenario for the official forecast is that Bertha survives its current lack of structure, land interaction, and dry air entrainment long enough to reach a more favorable environment in about 36 hours. At that point, it would likely intensify until the onset of extratropical transition in 96-120 hours. Using this scenario, the new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and calls for Bertha to become a hurricane in about 96 hours. The second scenario is that Bertha degenerates to a tropical wave as it passes over Hispaniola, with possible regeneration later when the system reaches the more favorable environment. A new third possibility involves a low pressure area currently developing over the northwestern Bahamas. The UKMET and NAVGEM forecast this low to get strong enough to absorb Bertha in 48 hours or so, while the other models are less bullish on the its development. Later model runs should help determine the likelihood of this scenario. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 18.4N 68.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 20.0N 70.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 22.5N 72.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 25.1N 74.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 28.0N 74.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 34.0N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 38.5N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 43.5N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm BERTHA (AT3/AL032014)
2014-08-02 22:51:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED BERTHA MOVING INTO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Aug 2 the center of BERTHA was located near 18.4, -68.5 with movement WNW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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