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Summary for Tropical Storm BERTHA (AT3/AL032014)

2014-08-03 04:40:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...BERTHA REMAINS DISORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Aug 2 the center of BERTHA was located near 19.5, -69.7 with movement NW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm BERTHA Public Advisory Number 9

2014-08-03 04:40:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 02 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 030240 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 02 2014 ...BERTHA REMAINS DISORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 69.7W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO ISLA SAONA * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON SUNDAY...AND MOVE EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE BY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS WELL AS THE TURKS AND CAICOS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO THROUGH TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Tropical Storm BERTHA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2014-08-03 04:40:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 03 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 030240 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 0300 UTC SUN AUG 03 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 10(28) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 42(43) 4(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) SAN SALVADOR 50 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN SALVADOR 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYAGUANA 34 9 41(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) MAYAGUANA 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYAGUANA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRAND TURK 34 85 X(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) GRAND TURK 50 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO PLATA 34 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Advisory Number 9

2014-08-03 04:39:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 03 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 030238 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 0300 UTC SUN AUG 03 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO ISLA SAONA * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 69.7W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 69.7W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 69.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.5N 71.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 24.1N 73.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 27.2N 74.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 30.4N 73.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 36.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 41.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 45.0N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 69.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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