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Tropical Depression JULIA Public Advisory Number 7
2016-09-15 16:48:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 151447 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 ...CENTER OF JULIA MOVES FARTHER EASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 78.2W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Julia was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 78.2 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 8 mph (13 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a slow and erratic motion offshore of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours as Julia encounters unfavorable upper-level winds. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Julia this afternoon. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of less than an inch across coastal sections of northeastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression JULIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2016-09-15 16:48:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 151447 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1500 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) 2(13) X(13) FLORENCE SC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression JULIA Forecast Advisory Number 7
2016-09-15 16:47:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 151447 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1500 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 78.2W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 78.2W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 78.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 31.8N 78.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 31.7N 77.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.6N 77.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.4N 77.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 31.5N 77.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 32.0N 77.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 78.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression TWELVE Graphics
2016-09-15 16:37:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Sep 2016 14:37:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Sep 2016 14:36:33 GMT
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Tropical Depression TWELVE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2016-09-15 16:36:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 151436 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1500 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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