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Tropical Depression TWELVE Forecast Discussion Number 4
2016-09-15 10:32:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150832 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 AM AST THU SEP 15 2016 AMSR2 microwave data from a few hours ago indicated that the depression's center was about a degree west of the deep convection due to 20 kt of westerly shear. Since the cyclone's structure has not improved, and subjective Dvorak estimates have not changed from six hours ago, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The westerly shear is expected to increase during the next 24 hours, and with a relatively drier air mass surrounding the cyclone, any strengthening during the next couple of days now appears less likely. After 48 hours, the shear is forecast to relax to some degree, but the global models disagree on exactly how much. Nonetheless, if the depression can survive the next couple of days, the environment should improve enough to allow for some strengthening by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast now holds the cyclone as a 30-kt depression for the next 3 days, followed by slight strengthening on days 4 and 5. This forecast is in best agreement with the statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM models. The microwave data indicate that the depression has been moving a little faster toward the west at 275/14 kt. The Bermuda-Azores high is expected to steer the depression generally westward across the tropical Atlantic during the entire 5-day forecast period. A south-of-due-west motion is even possible on days 2 and 3, especially if the cyclone remains weak. With the exception of the GFDL, which shows more strengthening and is an outlier way to the north of the other models, the guidance envelope is relatively tight. To account for the apparent north bias of the GFDL, the updated NHC track forecast is a bit south of the TVCN multi-model consensus. The new forecast is also a little faster than and south of the previous forecast, especially on days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 17.6N 29.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 17.8N 31.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 18.0N 33.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 17.9N 36.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 17.6N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 16.7N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 16.5N 49.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 17.0N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression TWELVE (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-15 10:32:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH LITTLE TO NO STRENGTHENING... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 15 the center of TWELVE was located near 17.6, -29.3 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TWELVE Public Advisory Number 4
2016-09-15 10:32:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 150832 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 AM AST THU SEP 15 2016 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH LITTLE TO NO STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 29.3W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 29.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will continue to move away from the Cabo Verde Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains are possible over the western Cabo Verde Islands today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression TWELVE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2016-09-15 10:32:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 150832 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0900 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression TWELVE Forecast Advisory Number 4
2016-09-15 10:32:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 150831 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0900 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 29.3W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 29.3W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 28.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.8N 31.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.0N 33.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.9N 36.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.6N 39.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.7N 43.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 16.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 17.0N 53.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 29.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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