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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2016-09-11 04:31:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 11 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 110230 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016 0300 UTC SUN SEP 11 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 114.9W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 114.9W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 114.4W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.9N 116.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.0N 118.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.9N 119.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.7N 120.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.9N 120.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 19.1N 122.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 19.0N 126.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 114.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Graphics
2016-09-05 01:57:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2016 23:57:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2016 21:07:43 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E (EP5/EP152016)
2016-09-05 01:52:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 the center of FIFTEEN-E was located near 16.5, -105.4 with movement NNW at 4 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 1A
2016-09-05 01:52:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 042352 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 700 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2016 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 105.4W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lazaro to San Evaristo, including Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued within 48 hours of the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 105.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 4 mph (6 km/h). A faster northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to approach the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula late Monday night or Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight, and could be near hurricane strength on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches for coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, as well as the state of Baja California Sur, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches through Tuesday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase near the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Graphics
2016-09-04 23:17:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2016 20:51:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2016 21:07:43 GMT
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