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Tropical Depression TWELVE Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-09-15 04:56:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150255 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016 The convective pattern of the depression has improved some since the previous advisory with short curved bands having developed in all quadrants. In addition, the upper-level outflow has also improved and become more symmetrical. Satellite intensity estimates range from 30 kt from TAFB and SAB, 37-41 kt in recent AMSU estimates, and an ADT value of T2.8/41 kt. Due to the lack of persistent inner-core convection, the intensity is being maintained at 30 kt. The initial motion is 280/12 kt. A deep-layer ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected steer the system west-northwestward and then westward during the next 48 hours, accompanied by some decrease in forward speed as the ridge weakens slightly. By 72 hours and beyond, the ridge is forecast to build southward slightly, forcing the cyclone on a west-southwestward track over warmer waters. The new forecast track is basically just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus models. Some strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours or so. After that, the cyclone will encounter moderate to strong westerly vertical wind shear caused by a developing upper-level trough to the north of the cyclone. The new intensity forecast continues to show the system weakening back to a depression by 36 hours. On days 4 and 5, some slight re-strengthening is expected when the cyclone moves over SSTs near 28 deg C and into more favorable mid- and upper-level environments as shown by the ECMWF and UKMET models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 17.6N 27.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 17.8N 29.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 18.0N 31.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 18.1N 34.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 17.9N 36.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 17.5N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 17.4N 44.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 17.9N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression TWELVE Graphics
2016-09-14 22:41:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Sep 2016 20:41:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Sep 2016 20:35:33 GMT
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Tropical Depression TWELVE Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-09-14 22:40:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 142040 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016 The depression has not become better organized since the last advisory, with the most concentrated convection now in a cluster just west of the estimated center position. The initial intensity remains 30 kt in best agreement with a satellite intensity estimate from SAB. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/13 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge should steer the system west-northwestward and then westward during the forecast period, with some decrease in forward speed after 36-48 hours as the ridge weakens slightly. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little north of, the previous track based on a slight northward shift in the track guidance. Some strengthening is expected during the next 12 hours or so. After that, the cyclone will encounter strong westerly vertical wind shear caused by a developing upper-level trough near and north of the cyclone. This, combined with passage over sea-surface temperatures of about 26C-27C, should lead to weakening, and the intensity forecast shows the system weakening back to a depression by 36 hours. Near the end of the forecast period, the dynamical models continue to diverge on the evolution of the upper-level winds, with the ECMWF and UKMET forecasting a more favorable ridge pattern near the cyclone, whereas the GFS has an upper-level trough close by. Based on these conflicting models, the forecast leans toward the ECMWF/UKMET scenario and shows some re-intensification by 120 hours. An alternative scenario is that the cyclone degenerates into a broad low pressure area or tropical wave as forecast by the GFS. Overall, the intensity forecast remains on the low side of the guidance in best agreement with the LGEM. Gusty winds remain possible over the Cabo Verde Islands tonight, whereas locally heavy rains will remain possible through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 17.4N 26.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 17.9N 28.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 18.0N 30.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 18.1N 33.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 18.1N 35.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 18.0N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 17.5N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 18.0N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression TWELVE (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-14 22:36:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NOW WEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 14 the center of TWELVE was located near 17.4, -26.5 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TWELVE Graphics
2016-09-14 16:43:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Sep 2016 14:43:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Sep 2016 14:42:33 GMT
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